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Thread: Bill James Individual Projections

      
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    Default Bill James Individual Projections

    Fangraphs has them up on the player pages, and the full versions are available for sale now. Here are the projected 2010 Pirates. Note that he tends to project on the high side in terms of number of games played for bench players.

    HITTERS:

    Likely Starters:
    Player AVG/OBP/SLG HR 3B 2B SB
    Andrew McCutchen .281/.353/.430 13 7 31 31
    Lastings Milledge .283/.340/.413 11 2 30 22 (Milledge=Cutch-lite)
    Garrett Jones .271/.330./.479 25 2 35 14
    Andy LaRoche .254/.338/.402 15 2 28 4
    Ronny Cedeno .254/.299/.384 9 3 15 6
    Akinori Iwamura .290/.367/.389 4 5 28 12
    Ryan Doumit .285/.341/.471 15 1 28 4 (Has him playing 111 games!)

    Others:
    Jason Jaramillo .255/.319/.362 4 0 13 1 (235 AB)
    Brandon Moss .269/.340/.435 7 2 20 2 (271 AB)
    Steve Pearce .261/.328/.450 6 1 14 3 (180 AB)
    Robinzon Diaz .273/.307/.364 2 0 7 1 (143 AB)
    Delwyn Young .271/.325/.422 9 1 24 2 (351 AB)
    Ramon Vazquez .242/.332/.337 2 1 9 1 (178 AB)

    No data available for guys like Pedro Alvarez, Jeff Clement, Luis Cruz, Brian Bixler, Neil Walker, etc. For whatever reason it does have this projection:
    Jose Tabata .271/.324/.366 2 0 9 6 (161 AB)

    PITCHERS
    Starters:
    Player W L IP ERA WHIP SO BB
    Ross Ohlendorf 7 12 167 4.90 1.54 118 50
    Charlie Morton 7 8 136 3.97 1.40 102 57
    Zach Duke 9 14 206 4.54 1.44 104 52
    Paul Maholm 9 12 197 4.29 1.41 126 66
    Kevin Hart 5 8 120 4.54 1.44 104 53
    Daniel McCutchen 3 5 73 4.56 1.32 54 18
    (I like that all of the starters come out as being exactly the same guy)

    Relievers:
    Joel Hanrahan 3 4 64 4.78 1.56 60 36
    Evan Meek 2 2 32 3.94 1.50 28 18
    Matt Capps 3 3 57 3.47 1.18 45 11 (30 saves)
    Jose Ascanio 2 2 31 4.35 1.39 29 12
    Jeff Karstens 4 6 87 4.55 1.41 57 28 (11 starts, 27 relief appearances)
    Phil Dumatriat 1 3 38 5.45 1.63 24 20
    Steven Jackson 2 4 58 4.81 1.55 46 25

    The system loves Doumit and Capps and isn't a big fan of Ross Ohlendorf. I can agree with the projection that Phil Dumatrait is awful.

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    Default Re: Bill James Individual Projections

    I've learned to take these projections with a grain of salt. You can project generally in ranges what you expect from players, but I'm more interested in a projected lineup and the strengths and weaknesses than what their stats will be.

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    Default Re: Bill James Individual Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by indybucfan View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I've learned to take these projections with a grain of salt. You can project generally in ranges what you expect from players, but I'm more interested in a projected lineup and the strengths and weaknesses than what their stats will be.
    Pretty much right with you.

    I'm trying to figure out how and why they have Ohlendorf's numbers that bad. All the guy did over his first full season was improve throughout the season in just about every category. General projections would say that Ohlendorf until he shows otherwise should continue on that same path this season, not regress badly as this projects.

    and there's no way Ryan Doumit gets those numbers in 111 games. The more Doumit gets injured the harder of a time he has hitting when he comes back. If he gsets injured late rather than early like this year, then maybe. Guess it depends on when he gets his yearly injury.

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    Default Re: Bill James Individual Projections

    That lineup has almost zero power...terrible in that aspect.

    I dunno what these projections actually tell us.

    Just as an FYI...how in gods name are we to expect Hart to pitch as well as Zach Duke?
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    Default Re: Bill James Individual Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Pretty much right with you.

    I'm trying to figure out how and why they have Ohlendorf's numbers that bad. All the guy did over his first full season was improve throughout the season in just about every category. General projections would say that Ohlendorf until he shows otherwise should continue on that same path this season, not regress badly as this projects.
    I would agree with the idea that these numbers really mean nothing, I just like looking at them for no reason.

    As far as Ohlendorf's numbers go, that one I think I can explain. Despite having a very solid season last year, his peripheral numbers weren't particularly good and those have a huge influence on the projections. The way James projects it actually sees his K/9 increasing, his BB/9 decreasing slightly, his HR/9 decreasing slightly (so obviously his FIP improves), but his BABIP evening out from what would be considered a "lucky" season last year. Ohlendorf's BABIP in 2009 was .265 which is considered to be in the unsustainable range. The projection has him bumping it up all the way into the slightly unlucky range at .322.

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    Default Re: Bill James Individual Projections

    Quote Originally Posted by jnn123 View Post
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    I would agree with the idea that these numbers really mean nothing, I just like looking at them for no reason.

    As far as Ohlendorf's numbers go, that one I think I can explain. Despite having a very solid season last year, his peripheral numbers weren't particularly good and those have a huge influence on the projections. The way James projects it actually sees his K/9 increasing, his BB/9 decreasing slightly, his HR/9 decreasing slightly (so obviously his FIP improves), but his BABIP evening out from what would be considered a "lucky" season last year. Ohlendorf's BABIP in 2009 was .265 which is considered to be in the unsustainable range. The projection has him bumping it up all the way into the slightly unlucky range at .322.
    But was his BABIP unlucky or the result of a good defense behind him or a combination of both? I'll go with good defense + luck. So even if you do that, his BABIP shouldn't be worse than Ian Snell's. I can understand raising his BABIP because his FB/GB ratio is about even compared to guys like Duke and Morton who have lower BABIP's but have high GB ratios... but a near 60 point change in BABIP seems a bit excessive

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    Default Re: Bill James Individual Projections

    ZiPS also has their projections out now. They project a lot more players and do it as if they're all going to be getting playing time. Team leaders in terms of OPS+

    1. Garrett Jones 114
    2. Andrew McCutchen 108
    3. Jeff Clement 107
    4. Steven Pearce 103
    5. Ryan Doumit 101
    6. Taggert Bozied 100
    7. Brian Myrow 99
    8. Akinori Iwamura 99
    9. Andy LaRoche 94
    10. Neil Walker 93

    Starters by ERA+
    1. Charlie Morton 103
    2. Paul Maholm 98
    3. Zach Duke 89
    4. Kevin Hart 88
    5. Jeff Karstens 87
    6. Tim Alderson 86
    7. Daniel McCutchen 85
    8. Ross Ohlendrof 84
    9. Brad Lincoln 83
    10. Eric Hacker 82

    Relievers by ERA+
    1. Matt Capps 109
    2. Joel Hanrahan 105
    3. Chris Bootcheck 103

    Yikes...

    Their Alvarez projection over 500 ABs:
    .233/.311/.419 22 HR 165 K

    Tabata over 400 ABs
    .266/.323/.373 6 HR

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...burgh_pirates/

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