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Thread: 2010 Zips Predictions

      
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    Default 2010 Zips Predictions

    Zips have generally been pretty good. Here's the 1010 Zips predecitions/projections

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...burgh_pirates/

    I'd have posted the prediction and thrown them into a table but there's honestly a ****load

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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    I like seeing this stuff now, when the realities of last season are still fresh, instead of say in February. Because, now Im able to agree with it and see very little reason to doubt those projections. They all seem spot on.
    Now, in February, Id be making an *** out of myself making ridiculous projections because Im pumped the season is right around the corner. Like I always do.

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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    Our top 7 hitters in terms of OPS include Steve Pearce, Tagg Bozied, and Brian Myrow. We're in trouble.

    Interesting that ZiPS also projects a bad year out of Ohlendorf and for Morton to be the best pitcher in the rotation (although that's not saying much). I think upper-level minor league numbers weight pretty heavily for guys with limited major league experience in these things.

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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by jnn123 View Post
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    Our top 7 hitters in terms of OPS include Steve Pearce, Tagg Bozied, and Brian Myrow. We're in trouble.

    Interesting that ZiPS also projects a bad year out of Ohlendorf and for Morton to be the best pitcher in the rotation (although that's not saying much). I think upper-level minor league numbers weight pretty heavily for guys with limited major league experience in these things.
    There's a good reason to place faith in their "projections."

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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    I didn't really look through the more detailed parts before, but there's some interesting stuff in there.

    Jeff Salazar's #1 comparable player is Terry Bradshaw!

    Lastings projects as "very good" in left field, but fringe-average in right and center. Andy LaRoche rates as fringe-average at second, although that's hard to really judge. Delwyn came out "poor". Cedeno's fringe-average at short and very good at second, Vazquez is fringy everywhere.

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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    Yeah, there were a TON of interesting predictions/projections in the ZIP numbers. I was surprised about Morton as well but when you think about it. He's got the most potential to be our above average K/9 guy and when he's not striking guys out, he forces a ton of ground balls, in the Zack Duke range in FB/GB ratio. His control is decent as well. So, you take what Duke did last year and tag on an about 2-3 more to a K/p number and it could be possible. Morton sure as hell has the stuff.

    Another surprise is that they figured Paul Maholm to lead the staff in K's. Both Morton and Ohlendorf had a better K/9 than Maholm. I guess it depends on IP since Maholm was able to go deeper into games than those 2, but Morton's numbers were based on not a full seasons worth, yet both Morton and Ohlendorf have higher Strike out potential than Maholm. I'm not sure I see that Zip holding up.

    And how the **** do they figure Pearce at an OPS+ of 101?? The highest he's ever gotten at the MLB level was 94 in 2007. In 2008 he had 89 and last year 77

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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    And how the **** do they figure Pearce at an OPS+ of 101?? The highest he's ever gotten at the MLB level was 94 in 2007. In 2008 he had 89 and last year 77
    Maybe they read his quote in the Trib today:

    "I'm going to open some eyes this year," Pearce said Tuesday. "This is the year it's got to happen. But first, I've got to get healthy."

    If Pearce says it's going to happen it's going to happen.

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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    One thing that is interesting for me in these projections is how much they seem to think our rotation will struggle. That to me is pretty telling. IF in fact that happens...the Pirates don't have a chance. What the Pirates need is for the rotation to take a step FORWARD and have the offense and bullpen step up. If the rotation falters it wont look good.

    I do want to know, though, how good are these projections at predicting outbursts by young teams? How'd they do with Tampa Bay?
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    Default Re: 2010 Zips Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBen2112 View Post
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    One thing that is interesting for me in these projections is how much they seem to think our rotation will struggle. That to me is pretty telling. IF in fact that happens...the Pirates don't have a chance. What the Pirates need is for the rotation to take a step FORWARD and have the offense and bullpen step up. If the rotation falters it wont look good.

    I do want to know, though, how good are these projections at predicting outbursts by young teams? How'd they do with Tampa Bay?
    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ay_devil_rays/

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