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Thread: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

      
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    Default Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Let's try to root ourselves back into reality instead of getting all caught up in the trade deadline aspect of the Pirates having the chance to add players. Additions don't automatically translate to complete domination and a perfect record as I've seen some quickly allude in their overdramatic defenses of needing to trade for Bucco McThump. To assume in any argument that we could've automatically swept the 3rd best team in the NL if we had someone else at 1B or RF than what he had is is a part fantasy and part delusional.

    The Best team in MLB right now is the Philadelphia Phillies who with a team Batting Average of .248 are 21st overall in MLB, while the Pittsburgh Pirates are at 24th overall with a .244 team Batting Average. Would both teams like to upgrade their Offenses? Yes, but let's not lose sight of what has gotten a team like the Philadelphia Phillies there.

    Pitching and Defense.

    Without those 2 main ingredients, which is really many more parts Pitching than Defense, the Offense wouldn't matter.

    That has been the story of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the past 18 years until 2011. None of the prior Management teams tried to seriously build a team at the MLB on strong pitching. It quite simply has never been there. There's been some really good Offenses that have come through town over the past 18 years but without good pitching, all of those teams ended up with losing records and were for the most part non-competitive after the All-Star Game.

    Recently after the hoopla over Carlos Beltran disappeared the hysteria amongst the knee jerk reactionaries out there in Bucco Land from most of which have recently decided to jump back on the bandwagon that they have spent years trying to condemn has been...

    Hunter Pence.

    Would Hunter Pence look nice in a Pittsburgh Pirates uniform manning a future outfield with Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen for the next 3 or so years? Most definitely. Is the price that is being asked of him which was a recent denying of 2 of the Philadelphia Phillies Top 5 Prospects worth it?

    No.

    Add all of the 2011 Hunter Pence numbers to the Pittsburgh Pirates team results and we move a very modest 5 spots in overall team Batting Average with .250. That might be an improvement, but in no way is a .006 improvement in Team Batting average worth giving up at least 2 of your Top 5 prospects, one of which would most likely be future potential Pitching Ace 's Jameson Taillon or Luis Heredia. That modest improvement will not put the Pittsburgh Pirates over the top and certainly doesn't guarantee not only more wins but a legit shot at getting to the World Series. Getting to the World Series, not just the Playoffs is what the goal has to be if you are going to give up what a team like the Houston Astros for instance is demanding as a return for Hunter Pence.

    No amount of Trade Deadline acquire is going to make a difference if this Pitching Staff cannot duplicate in the 2nd half what it has in the 1st half of the season. That is just simply the reality of things. Trading away key components of the future for a modest Offensive improvement in the present isn't just a poor investment but it's an extremely high risk gamble that not one person reading this unless they have a gambling addiction would make in their real life day to day operations.

    Once again, it's time to step down from Cloud 9 and look at the wider scope of reality.

    The Pittsburgh Pirates absolutely need Offensive improvement, but most of that improvement has to come from what the currently have as well. It also hasn't really helped the Pittsburgh Pirates team batting average having to play bench players and AAA players at a higher rate than normal due to injuries.

    For example, a more solidified lineup of the following ..

    Jose Tabata
    Neil Walker
    Andrew McCutchen
    Ryan Doumit
    Pedro Alvarez
    Lyle Overbay
    Garrett Jones
    Ronny Cedeno
    Plus the Pitchers Batting Stats

    Team Batting Average improves to .251 when you eliminate all of the various bench and AAA At-Bats we've had this season. This is important because going forward the lineup should be healthier, so it's a better indicator as long as we stay healthy of what the Offensive Production could be.

    If you don't like seeing Lyle Overbay, and right now, who does? Then pretend for a moment that we play Garrett Jones at 1B, Ryan Doumit at RF and Fort McKenry at Catcher.

    Team Batting Average improves to .255 which is a nice .011 improvement over where it currently stands. That is more than we will be able to achieve from trading at least 2 Top 5 picks to acquire Hunter Pence's services, but most importantly it was all achieved with what we currently have.

    Let's take our eyes off of a guy like Hunter Pence, since the current rate going for him would be a terrible investment for the Pittsburgh Pirates due to his modest production return. He would add power and solidify the middle of the lineup with a bat that is hitting over.300 but in the team scope of things, the improvement just doesn't match the price. this is what you would call a "Gross Overpayment"

    From now until the Official Trade Deadline, let's look at more reasonable options for the Pittsburgh Pirates to acquire that won't cost a hefty portion of it's brightest parts of the future. Instead of looking for the Marian Hossa's, look at the Billy Guerin's. Look for the Zane Smith's. There's a lot available still that could provide an improvement that helps the entire batting lineup, the offensive production, even if it's modest but be a far smaller gamble, risk and cost

    EDIT : Due to completely forgetting about the Zane Smith trade which was us trading former first rounder and future All-Star Moises Alou, along with Willie Green and Scott Ruskin to the Montreal Expos, I would like to take back the Zane Smith reference. That trade while it did good for the immediate present regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1990-92, long term, it was an awful Trade which is actually something to think about here, right now.
    Last edited by Kipper; Feb-27-2015 at 02:16 PM.
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  2. #2
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    what do you think about a trade for Rangers prospect Chris Davis? he has power (although he does play in the PCL) with decent average and it shouldn't cost too much to get him. it would be for the future and very well could help now. all indications are that he is ready for the big leagues but has nowhere to go in the Rangers lineup.
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Quote Originally Posted by Steelreign View Post
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    what do you think about a trade for Rangers prospect Chris Davis? he has power (although he does play in the PCL) with decent average and it shouldn't cost too much to get him. it would be for the future and very well could help now. all indications are that he is ready for the big leagues but has nowhere to go in the Rangers lineup.
    I'd be interested but his K rate is through the roof. May not work out as well considering Pedro is already a whiff machine. Sometimes you just need a guy to get a bat on the ball to move a runner up or drive in a run.

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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Maybe I should take off my "anyone is better than Overbay" glasses for awhile
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Chris Davis' K rate is a little overblown personally. I pointed out in another thread that Davis' K's this year are only very slightly up over his entire minor league career norm but he appears to be more aggressive at the plate since he's been killing the ball at AAA this year at a .368 clip, 1.229 OPS and 24 Homers. He's going to top Pedro's best minor league HR season. Actually Davis already has earlier on.

    The guy is flat out raking in AAA and most of his minor league career. I'd love to have Davis here ..

    except ...

    He's not someone that you bring in to help the teram right now. He's not really produced at the MLB level in his carrer, lacks experience and is unproven. to help us this season we need a more proven MLB hitter but for the future, I'd love to take a stab at Davis. He's also someone that Clint Hurdle would know.

    Finding power hitters that can hit for average or better and not strike out on average of around 1 per game don't grow on trees and if they did, it would be a ridiculously expensive tree and that player would be such a high ranking prospect, we'd never be able to touch him.

    So the question to ask is... is a K rate of around 1 per game on average not worth a guy who has the potential to hit for average or better with possibly some of the best power potential in our organization or would we rather have a guy that doesn't strike out as much, probably hits for an Overbay average but has good power OR a guy who is just average to mediocre all around?
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Quote Originally Posted by Steelreign View Post
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    Maybe I should take off my "anyone is better than Overbay" glasses for awhile
    Not at all. It's my personal desire that anyone we try to obtain for the present and/or future at 1B or RF have 20+ potential ASAP. Which means, not the type of power that scouts claim a player will develop as they get older and never show anywhere in their careers. Potential as in, has shown it at the minor league level or in a brief or long stint at least at the MLB level.

    Davis provides that. A pure contact guy with minimal power isn't enough for the Pirates.

    In my Article I mentioned how the Phillies are only slightly better than us in Team Batting Average. However, they are 13th in all of MLB in runs scored. The Pirates are 26th. We are worse ranking wise in scoring than we are in hitting.

    Why?

    tied for 28th in all of MLB in Slugging %. Only the Mariners and Athletics are worse. You can't generate the type of runs we want or need as a singles hitting club and single hitting players aren't going to help us produce enough runs to win games right now. You don't find singles hitting players batting 4th or 5th in a lineup. It doesn't happen. We need more THUMP if we are going to get anyone right now or in the future. If it means we have to deal with a couple more strike outs instead of fly ball outs or ground outs, who cares?
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    Look for the Zane Smith's. T
    Zane Smith cost up M. Alou and others (Timlin, maybe?). Not sure I'd give up a present day Alou-like prospect for a Zane Smith like batter.

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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Quote Originally Posted by PE1 View Post
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    Zane Smith cost up M. Alou and others (Timlin, maybe?). Not sure I'd give up a present day Alou-like prospect for a Zane Smith like batter.
    Oh ****, you're right!

    I must go edit the Article I forgot about that completely. That was actually a good example of a terribler trade since we traded M
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    EDIT : Due to completely forgetting about the Zane Smith trade which was us trading former first rounder and future All-Star Moises Alou, along with Willie Green and Scott Ruskin to the Montreal Expos, I would like to take back the Zane Smith reference. That trade while it did good for the immediate present regarding the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1990-92, long term, it was an awful Trade which is actually something to think about here, right now.
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    listening to these bandwagon fans on 93.7 brings to light how many idiots are actually out there. can none of them grasp the concept that you don't......... A: give up elite prospects for rental player with a power bat when your system isn't yet sustainable enough to be losing them. B:give them up when you're more than just a power bat away from legitimately contending for a division title.

    if there is a deadline deal made it has to be made with an eye for the future mostly and not to just win this year. my thought about going after Chris Davis, is that he is ready enough to platoon with Jones and young enough to contribute in the future until maybe Curry, Dickerson are ready and one of those three is great trade bait to go out and grab another need at some point.

    Too many people are going bug **** crazy with this early and unexpected success, they need to relax a little and think about the big picture. trading from depth is far more successful than trading from desperation to win now.
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    I would give up a package for Upton that would include at most Allie...if that's not good enough then it's not good enough.

    I would deal for Davis too...like his overall power projection...even if he compares favorably to Alvarez. Lol
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    Default Re: Don't Throw Away The Impact Of The Future For A Modest Return In The Present

    Quote Originally Posted by Steelreign View Post
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    listening to these bandwagon fans on 93.7 brings to light how many idiots are actually out there. can none of them grasp the concept that you don't......... A: give up elite prospects for rental player with a power bat when your system isn't yet sustainable enough to be losing them. B:give them up when you're more than just a power bat away from legitimately contending for a division title.

    if there is a deadline deal made it has to be made with an eye for the future mostly and not to just win this year. my thought about going after Chris Davis, is that he is ready enough to platoon with Jones and young enough to contribute in the future until maybe Curry, Dickerson are ready and one of those three is great trade bait to go out and grab another need at some point.

    Too many people are going bug **** crazy with this early and unexpected success, they need to relax a little and think about the big picture. trading from depth is far more successful than trading from desperation to win now.
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    I would give up a package for Upton that would include at most Allie...if that's not good enough then it's not good enough.

    I would deal for Davis too...like his overall power projection...even if he compares favorably to Alvarez. Lol
    Alvarez is going to get it, it's just going to take longer than we all want or expect. Once he gets better reads at this level, he's going to be fine. He's adjusted everywhere else, the MLB level is most likely going to take a little more time.

    Upton... whew.. Allie could be much. I'd have to think about it. I don't really like what Upton has done the past 3 years with the Rays to be honest. I know he's young and not in his prime years yet but color me concerned
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