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Thread: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

      
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    Default Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Tis that time of year for the first of what is usually 2 or 3 Lineup guessing threads.

    Unlike the normal/general ones, let's have some fun... This lineup should change by mid season if you are of a believer that Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and/or Brad Lincoln will make their ways up

    Whyy this is usually the first of a couple of thse is because players are still being had in Free Agency, so it's a little incomplete.

    Nonetheless..

    2010 - Start

    CF - Andrew McCutchen
    2B - Aki Iwamura
    RF - Garett Jones
    C - Ryan Doumit
    LF - Lastings Milledge
    3B - Andy Laroche
    1B - Jeff Clement
    SS - Ronny Cedeno

    Pitching :

    Zach Duke
    Ross Ohlendorf
    Paul Maholm
    Charlie Morton
    Daniel McCutchen

    ???
    ???
    Steven Jackson
    Javier Lopez
    Kevin Hart
    Evan Meek
    Joel Hanrahan

    2010 - Midseason

    CF - Andrew McCutchen
    RF - Jose Tabata
    3B - Pedro Alvarez
    1B - Garett Jones
    LF - Latings Milledge
    2B - Aki Iwamura
    C - Jason Jaramillo
    SS - Ronny Cedeno

    Pitching :

    Zach Duke
    Ross Ohlendorf
    Brad Lincoln
    Charlie Morton
    Daniel McCutchen

    (Same as the starting one. almost too tough to figure this one out this early)


    I went with the Pirates trading Paul Maholm. This is the type of year Maholm does decent in I think. It's that off year, the pressures of being named the "ace" aren't there... I think he gets traded for some prospects... Duke... who gets tagged "Ace" is the one that goes down the tank because... whoever is named #1 pitcher for the Pirates that season seems to have off years/stinks.

    Kind of a reach with Lincoln. I don't know if he'll be ready yet but I don't see them trading a pitcher without Lincoln coming up.

    Ryan Doumit i'll be shocked if he's not traded. I think Andy Larocge stays with the team, for some reason I don't see Iwamura being traded and at this point I haven't figure out what's up with that scenerio I'm not rushing to say Andy is going to play 2B until it actually happens but he's got too much upside to trade... Iwamura because of my uncertainty with LaRoche not moving to 2B staying... I don't know... tough.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    I'll help you out with the Iwamura situation. Can you say Sayounara?

    If he can stay healthy up to the end of July that's what NH will be saying. A healthy Iwamura means he probably will play pretty well and thus price himself off the Pirate roster. I'm not trying to be negative but that's just the cold hard reality of the situation.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    I'll help you out with the Iwamura situation. Can you say Sayounara?

    If he can stay healthy up to the end of July that's what NH will be saying. A healthy Iwamura means he probably will play pretty well and thus price himself off the Pirate roster. I'm not trying to be negative but that's just the cold hard reality of the situation.
    that's the simple/easy answer but I can't shake this gut telling me something else with Iwamura. Gut is probably trying to tell me that his comeback won't be so great... we hang onto LaRoche, still have Iwamura...

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Ok, I fired up the Delorean and brought back the following information:

    Opening Day
    CF - Andrew McCutchen
    2B - Aki Iwamura
    LF - Lastings Milledge
    1B - Jeff Clement
    RF - Garett Jones
    C - Ryan Doumit
    3B - Andy Laroche
    SS - Ronny Cedeno


    August 1
    CF - Andrew McCutchen
    LF - Lastings Milledge
    RF - Garett Jones
    1B - Jeff Clement
    3B - Pedro Alvarez
    C - Jaramillio
    2B - Bobby Crosby/Andy Laroche
    SS - Ronny Cedeno

    - Clement, Jones, and Milledge don't disappoint. Tabata's lack of power
    and the performance of Clement/Jones/Milledge combine to keep Tabata
    in AAA until September.

    - Ohlendorf emerges as the staff ace.

    - Maholm is traded at the deadline.

    - Surprisingly, Kevin Hart emerges as the fifth starter role and has a solid year.

    - Lincoln is mediocre in AAA with a low K/9 rate. In Pittsburgh he is a spot
    starter and middle reliever.

    - Daniel Mcutchen is an effective Middle reliever.

    - After another unimpressive half-season in AAA, Moskos is given a permanent
    spot in the Bucs bullpen as a middlle reliever. He's lousy but he's left-handed.

    - To quote PittFanVa: Sayonara Iwamura

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    that's the simple/easy answer but I can't shake this gut telling me something else with Iwamura. Gut is probably trying to tell me that his comeback won't be so great... we hang onto LaRoche, still have Iwamura...
    Reason’s for Iwamura getting traded……

    Iwamura is going to make 4.85 mil this year.
    He's a FA after the year.
    Iwamura will want a multi year contract to stay..... which the Pirates won’t give.
    If Iwamura has a pulse in 2011 he will command a raise
    Alvarez is probably coming to town in mid season to play 3rd.
    Laroche will probably be moved to 2nd.
    Ford, Friday maybe even D’Arnaud might be ready at some point this coming year or next thus rendering Iwamura superfluous.
    NH won’t let Iwamura leave as a FA he will want to get something for him.
    Even if the young guys don't pan out or aren’t ready NH will find a lower cost alternative


    Reasons for Iwamura to stay……

    Your gut..........


    The only scenario in which I see Iwamura lasting the year with the Pirates is that he gets hurt and can’t be traded. Even if he doesn’t get hurt and plays poorly most of the above reasons still apply.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    I am going to go out on a limb here and say despite Pedro working his *** off and getting into shape, and despite a very solid spring training, and despite him hitting well in AAA, they will say he needs to work on this or that and he will remain in AAA until the september callups.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Pittsburgh View Post
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    I am going to go out on a limb here and say despite Pedro working his *** off and getting into shape, and despite a very solid spring training, and despite him hitting well in AAA, they will say he needs to work on this or that and he will remain in AAA until the september callups.
    If all you state comes true it would make no sense at all for him to play at AAA when he can get ML experience in Pittsburgh. Calling him up in June gives the club more ML development time with him with no added arb or FA penalty.

    You can bet your *** if Pedro is ranking at AAA at the end of May he's in Pittsburgh come early June.

    Look at precedent...Look at McCutchen.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    Reason’s for Iwamura getting traded……

    Iwamura is going to make 4.85 mil this year.
    He's a FA after the year.
    Iwamura will want a multi year contract to stay..... which the Pirates won’t give.
    If Iwamura has a pulse in 2011 he will command a raise
    Alvarez is probably coming to town in mid season to play 3rd.
    Laroche will probably be moved to 2nd.
    Ford, Friday maybe even D’Arnaud might be ready at some point this coming year or next thus rendering Iwamura superfluous.
    NH won’t let Iwamura leave as a FA he will want to get something for him.
    Even if the young guys don't pan out or aren’t ready NH will find a lower cost alternative


    Reasons for Iwamura to stay……

    Your gut..........


    The only scenario in which I see Iwamura lasting the year with the Pirates is that he gets hurt and can’t be traded. Even if he doesn’t get hurt and plays poorly most of the above reasons still apply.
    If you read my previous post (which you didn't ) you'd have seen that my gut was pointing towards Iwamura either getting injured or not having a great year

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    If you read my previous post (which you didn't ) you'd have seen that my gut was pointing towards Iwamura either getting injured or not having a great year
    I thought my post was all encompassing and covered any scenario. Maybe it didn't.

    If even if what you said could be interrupted as him getting hurt (which you didn't plainly say) I still don't think he will resign with the Pirates even if he is hurt and can't be traded during the season.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    I thought my post was all encompassing and covered any scenario. Maybe it didn't.

    If even if what you said could be interrupted as him getting hurt (which you didn't plainly say) I still don't think he will resign with the Pirates even if he is hurt and can't be traded during the season.
    Does Huntington's internal value flip chart even go to 4.85 million???

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    If all you state comes true it would make no sense at all for him to play at AAA when he can get ML experience in Pittsburgh. Calling him up in June gives the club more ML development time with him with no added arb or FA penalty.

    You can bet your *** if Pedro is ranking at AAA at the end of May he's in Pittsburgh come early June.

    Look at precedent...Look at McCutchen.
    Sorry. I was thinking that he could come up in Sept. and it wouldn't count toward a year of service. If it is earlier, June you say, then he should be up by then. What is the rule for service time? How long would a guy have to play in AAA before being called up for it not to count as a full season?

    My bad, anyway!

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    I think the initial lineup is pretty straight forward as far as positions. the batting order is another story. Here's mine
    CF Cutch
    2B Aki
    RF Jones
    C Doumit
    LF Milledge
    1B Clement
    3B LaRoche
    SS Cedeno

    P Ohlendorf
    P Maholm
    P Duke
    P Morton
    P McCutchen

    Cl Dotel (I may be crazy but i think they will really try to sign him)
    Hanrahan
    Meek
    Jackson
    Lopez
    Hart

    I see Laroche coming into his own this year and being shifted to 2nd. Aki gets traded. I see Tabata coming up after the trade deadline and Pedro coming up in June. Lincoln comes up in July. Doumit, Duke, and Maholm stay all year. The team actually wins 84 games.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mister Pittsburgh View Post
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    Sorry. I was thinking that he could come up in Sept. and it wouldn't count toward a year of service. If it is earlier, June you say, then he should be up by then. What is the rule for service time? How long would a guy have to play in AAA before being called up for it not to count as a full season?

    My bad, anyway!
    Waiting until June basically prevents the player from being a dreaded super 2 player. Also that partial year (from June to Sept) doesn't count against his FA total because a player needs 6 full years at the start of a season to become a FA.

    The only way Pedro comes up in Sept and not June is if management deems him not ready in June.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Lup View Post
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    I think the initial lineup is pretty straight forward as far as positions. the batting order is another story. Here's mine
    CF Cutch
    2B Aki
    RF Jones
    C Doumit
    LF Milledge
    1B Clement
    3B LaRoche
    SS Cedeno

    P Ohlendorf
    P Maholm
    P Duke
    P Morton
    P McCutchen

    Cl Dotel (I may be crazy but i think they will really try to sign him)
    Hanrahan
    Meek
    Jackson
    Lopez
    Hart

    I see Laroche coming into his own this year and being shifted to 2nd. Aki gets traded. I see Tabata coming up after the trade deadline and Pedro coming up in June. Lincoln comes up in July. Doumit, Duke, and Maholm stay all year. The team actually wins 84 games.
    I like your optimism. Wish I had it.

    The only hope I see for that number of wins is a huge breakout for the pitching staff. Prior to all the trades the past two years, the hitting wasn't all that bad for thie Buccos. The starting pitching has just never delivered despite the fact that the former GM tried to build around it. Besides the questions in the rotation, the bullpen is simply an unknown at this point. I hope the current GM doesn't flinch in seriously trying to get some arms for the pen.

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    Default Re: Guesstimate the 2010 Lineup(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by buccoman View Post
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    I like your optimism. Wish I had it.

    The only hope I see for that number of wins is a huge breakout for the pitching staff. Prior to all the trades the past two years, the hitting wasn't all that bad for thie Buccos. The starting pitching has just never delivered despite the fact that the former GM tried to build around it. Besides the questions in the rotation, the bullpen is simply an unknown at this point. I hope the current GM doesn't flinch in seriously trying to get some arms for the pen.
    I also feel the strength of the team will be its starting pitching but they will get beat down over the course of the year by average (at best) hitting and a poor bullpen. I don't see anywhere near lup's win total.

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