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Thread: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

      
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    Shaker100's Avatar
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    Default 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    I am of the opinion several players projected to be starters on this team are candidates for breakout seasons. Now let me define what I mean by breakout. I'm talking about young players who've shown short to medium range capabilities but can't put it together for the whole season...yet. I'm not including guys like Doumit, Maholm or Duke because I fear we've seen them near their best or McCutcheon because he's already broken out but yes he could go higher.

    Cedeno: He's shown flashes in his time with us last year but largely inconsistent. I think he has upper ranges of 12-15 HR and 70 RBI .270-.280 with above average glove. Can he reach that? We'll see because he's gonna get his shot at a full time gig without much competition.

    Milledge: The talent has always been there but the concentration lapses can be maddening. He seems to be maturing and ready to fulfill the lofty expectations of his early Met days. Again an opportunity with full time LF spot could be just what the doctor ordered. He's the right age and the talent is there. Could we see 20 HR 85 RBI .280? I think it's within his reach. But he has to want it.

    LaRoche: We all know he's got Pedro in his rearview mirror. But the guy didn't fare too badly in his first full season at 3B. He was hitting with more power in September. He won't leg out many hits but I believe his BA with balls in play was lower signifying a possible breakout season this year. His power should improve if he stays healthy and he's developed a slightly above average glove. A move to another position could complicate everything. But if his power numbers increase, first base isn't out of the question. Maybe not enough range for 2B? Are 20-25 HR's 80-90 RBI's possible?

    Pitchers:

    Morton: The guy has talent, no question. He'll have his first opportunity as a starter from day 1. He needs to be more aggressive in the strike zone but if he gets ahead of hitters and trusts his stuff, 15 wins/ 3.50 ERA/ 1.25 WHIP isn't out of the question with a good K ratio. Will it happen this year?

    Meek: Another talented guy just grasping his capabilities. Kerrigan did a good job with him last year and we haven't seen the upper end of his velocity. Could make a great setup guy and future closer who makes hitters swing and miss.

    I haven't seen enough of Hart or Dan McCutchen to include them as breakout candidates. I'm not certain if Ohlendorf has another level or I'd include his name as well.
    Clement is a candidate but again I haven't seen enough of him and he'll have his hands full learning to play 1B.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Shaker100; Feb-10-2010 at 07:17 PM.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    i disagree with ohlendorf, he really progressed during the season, seemed to be able to make adjustments and seemed fairly consistent throughout the year. My vote for breakout on offense is Milledge, my defensive breakout player on defense is going to be jeff clement at 1st, no particular reason for it but we know he has something to prove so thats my choice. my bullpen breakout player is going to be joel hanrahan, really showed something at the end of the year after a horrid start with washington, and i am going with ohlendorf for breakout starter, i think morton needs a bit more seasoning.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    I am going to say Garrett Jones. He is going to crank 35-40 homers, have 100rbi's, and show he was no fluke. Not sure if it would qualify for a breakout performance but it would in my mind.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    I think Milledge will break out big this year. LaRoche will improve but not explode into a 25 hr 100 rbi guy. I think people are going to forget about JW this year. Cedeno will outperform JW's best year but quite a bit.

    On the mound I really like Morton. I can see him winning 15 games with a mid 3 era and a good whip. Ohlendorf will continue his maturation with a 13-15 win season as well.

    I think that both Meek and hanrahan are going to blossom into top set-up guys.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    Man, I hope all you guys are right! I be sippin' the kool aid!!!

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    Quote Originally Posted by CROSSBONES View Post
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    Man, I hope all you guys are right! I be sippin' the kool aid!!!
    I was thinking the same thing-except in my scenario they were sipping special "Mystery Kool-Aid".
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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    I like Milledge and Morton for breakouts.

    Milledge is still just 25 and everyone knows the talent is in there somewhere. He's been focused since coming to the Burgh and put a lot of work in during this offseason. He's already established himself as a solid .280-.290 hitter. His hand is fully healed which should mean more pop, and if he can improve his discipline and get his OBP up around .350 he could have a really nice year.

    Morton's got the stuff and the pedigree af an early round draft pick. He really started figuring things out at the AAA level at the age of 24. That's not all that unreasonable or behind the curve. He's still just 26 and will begin a season in the majors for the first time. Everyone knows his stats were skewed by that terrible inning in Chicago last season which means, for the most part, that he's already a better pitcher than his numbers indicate. He keeps the ball in the park and he's going to have a pretty decent defense behind him. If he can find more consistent command, he has the potential to be the best pitcher on the staff.

    As for the other guys mentioned, I think LaRoche will improve slightly, but not enough to qualify as a "breakout". I think he can get the AVG up over .260 and the HR up over 15 but not much more. We're never going to see the 30 HR potential he flashed in the minors. I think whatever adjustments he's made to make consistent contact in the majors have zapped him of much of that power. I expect him to OPS around .750 and play a stellar 3B but not much more. (But boy, would I love to be wrong about him.)

    I'm really down on Cedeno. I don't think he can hit. He's flashed the bat in two AAA stints at ages 22 and 24 but aside from that has never put it together for an extended period. He's never shown command of the strike zone at any level. I think his ceiling is around .260 with 12 HR and I'd be very surprised if he reached that. If he can OPS .700 and not make us think too often about Jack Wison we should count our blessings, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bobby Crosby took a big chunk of at bats away from him.

    I disagree too on Olendorf. He had a monster 2nd half in his first full season in the majors at the age of 27. he's got great command and the fact that he got stronger as he went along bodes very well for this season. I wouldn't count him as a breakout since I think he actually broke out last year, but I think there is still room for improvement.

    I think Meek could be an effective reliever, but I'm reluctant to call him a breakout candidate because he has too far to go with his control issues. Obviously if he puts it together he's got the stuff, I'm just not convinced he can do it to that extent.

    I'm not high on Hart or Dan McCutchen either. Of the two I like McCutchen better, mainly because of command, but he gives up a lot of hits and a lot of those hits have a tendency to go over outfield fences. I think he can be a serviceable #5 starter but not much more.

    Hart is just a mess. The Bucs keep saying he's in the mix for a starter job, but I can't see him sniffing the rotation unless he shows way more control. I'd really like to see him in Indy to start the year to sort things out.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    Daskid, I agree with just about everything you said,the only difference is I might be a little higher on Meek than you are. I'm totally with you on Hart and Cedeno.
    Are these morons getting dumber or just louder-Mayor Quimby

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    I'm in pretty much complete agreement with Daskid with the only exception being Andy Laroche's power potential. fully healthy, I think he's got 20 homer power or similar power to his brother.

    Morton, Milledge, Ohlendorf and Meek for sure on my end.

    The toughest part is predicting the one or more players that will have done years or regress. It's going to happen, almost tough to predict

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    The toughest part is predicting the one or more players that will have done years or regress. It's going to happen, almost tough to predict
    Duke had a lousy 2nd half last year. Given his 2007 and 2008 track record, I'd say he's my prime regression candidate.

    I hate to say it, but Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones are pretty good candidates too. For those of you who buy into PECOTA and CHONE type projections, McCutchen exceeded the 90th percentile for those projections last year. That's remarkable. It's not to say he can't do it again this year, it just means perhaps we shouldn't expect it. And that goes double for Jones given his age, lack of track record, and lack of top-prospect pedigree.

    And I wouldn't be surprised at all, based simply on age, to see one of our new ancient relievers fail to duplicate last year's success. Take your pick as to which one.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    Quote Originally Posted by Daskid View Post
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    Duke had a lousy 2nd half last year. Given his 2007 and 2008 track record, I'd say he's my prime regression candidate.

    I hate to say it, but Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones are pretty good candidates too. For those of you who buy into PECOTA and CHONE type projections, McCutchen exceeded the 90th percentile for those projections last year. That's remarkable. It's not to say he can't do it again this year, it just means perhaps we shouldn't expect it. And that goes double for Jones given his age, lack of track record, and lack of top-prospect pedigree.

    And I wouldn't be surprised at all, based simply on age, to see one of our new ancient relievers fail to duplicate last year's success. Take your pick as to which one.
    I would assume the same regarding Duke except that it wasn't the 2nd half when his number went down hill it was after the Trade Deadline when most players tend to go downhill . With the mass exodus of players and huge turnovers, it's tough for me to say that Duke went downhill naturally or the effects of the mass exodus played a part...

    In general though I think that Duke and jones have the highest and best potential for a down year/regression

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    **** yoyu pfiv, i was just gonna respond toyou and you deleted your message.

    Andy had 20-30 homer stuff in the minors which is pretty exceptional. I think that players with that type of potential can develop greater homer potential later on as they mature and their body gets stronger as well.... he dipped into the teens later on in his minor league career but I think that 20 homer potential is there.

    Andy LaRoche is very intriguing. You look at his numbers and his power could be a reflection of an injury needing the appropriate time to heal. You look at some other numbers and he's not a guy that K's that much, he's a contact guy to the point where he could be a good who ran into some bad luck....

    I guess chalk him up to being one of the many intriguing question marks this team has BUT I think his potential is much greater than his 2009 basic numbers

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    There are no candidates for down years or regressions. The Bucs are back baby.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    **** yoyu pfiv, i was just gonna respond toyou and you deleted your message.

    Andy had 20-30 homer stuff in the minors which is pretty exceptional. I think that players with that type of potential can develop greater homer potential later on as they mature and their body gets stronger as well.... he dipped into the teens later on in his minor league career but I think that 20 homer potential is there.

    Andy LaRoche is very intriguing. You look at his numbers and his power could be a reflection of an injury needing the appropriate time to heal. You look at some other numbers and he's not a guy that K's that much, he's a contact guy to the point where he could be a good who ran into some bad luck....

    I guess chalk him up to being one of the many intriguing question marks this team has BUT I think his potential is much greater than his 2009 basic numbers
    I agree he's intriguing. That's why I said I'd love to be wrong about him. The power is clearly in there. I'm just not sure how much of it will translate to the majors. I don't think this is a typical case of projection.

    We all know how horribly he struggled after reaching the majors. He's had to make a lot of adjustments to his swing to keep his job. He started really shortening things up last year just to make contact. At one point I think he admitted to swinging at about 75% power. He basically became a slap hitter. As he got more comfortable he added some power to the swing later in the season, but I just don't see him knocking 30 HR ever again like he did in the minors. That swing isn't being used anymore.

    Again, I'd really love to be wrong.

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    Default Re: 2010 Bucco Breakout candidates

    My breakout players for this year:

    Daniel McCutcheon will win the 5th spot and I think he will win more games than Duke!!!

    Crosby will win the starting SS job and bat .275 for the year with a better than NL average defense.....Maybe this should be my "comeback" player of the year???
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