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Thread: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

      
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    Default Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    It has been discussed in several other threads--that is Ranaudo vs. Brentz in the upcoming draft. The discussion is that Brentz is the best college bat and the Pirates should take him over the best college pitcher. I have argued that Ranaudo is a better prospect and thus the Pirates should take him. Here, what I will try to do, is provide some validation of that belief.

    What I will not be doing is discussing my own subjective analysis. I have seen Ranaudo pitch personally 7 times. Not everyone has had that experience or has access to that experience so I will not be focusing my analysis on that, but on his scouting profile, something that everyone has access to.

    What Ranaudo is not--Negative
    Ranaudo is not Stephen Strasburg. Not even close. Strasberg's profile is the best the scouting community has seen in a really long time. You look at the hype around a kid like Mark Prior when Prior came out...here was his scouting profile:

    Mark Prior
    Control= 58
    K-rating= 97
    Efficiency= 75
    vsPower= 46

    That is a strong--ace like--profile. The k-rating is what allowed Prior to have a dominant k9 in the high 10's and 11s during his time as a professional. The high k-rate is one of the most telling signs of a dominant starting pitcher...and Mark Prior had that.

    HOWEVER, Strasburg's profile is even better than that:

    Stephen Strasburg
    C= 85
    Kr=98
    E=99
    vP=89

    That is a profile which I have not seen before...and no matter his outcome, it may be a profile we may not see again for a long time.

    Anthony Ranaudo is not that. He's not anything close to Stephen Strasburg...few if any profile in that manner.

    What Ranaudo is not--Positive
    Ranaudo is not Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, Sean Burnett, Bobby Bradley, or Clint Johnston. I will examine the profiles of these pitchers--and can look at others if desired--and show that they profile only as average at best major league pitchers and due to injuries etc could not even become average--average meaning 4th/5th starter.

    Bryan Bullington
    C=73
    Kr=55
    E=64
    vP=59

    This is an average, almost control pitcher type of profile. His average k-rating indicates and ends up showing an inadequate k9 which precludes Bullington from really becoming a dominant #1 pitcher. This type of pitcher profile can be found easily later in the draft...look comparably at Zach Duke's profile. Duke was drafted in the 20th round.

    John Van Benschoten
    C=36
    Kr=64
    E=55
    vP=66

    This is a really weird profile. He's not a control pitcher...but he's not a power pitcher. Benschoten is what he is...a hitter who was ruined by incorrectly conceiving of him as a pitcher.

    Bobby Bradley
    C=72
    Kr=73
    E=84
    vP=54

    Bobby Bradley's profile is the best of the group by far. Here, we have one of our first cases of a pitcher who is talented and simply could not hold up. Just looking at Bradley's numbers you see a pretty **** good pitcher...a pitcher who may profile as a good #2-3 pitcher but simply was broken. He only pitched 314 innings in 6 professional seasons. This is unfortunate.

    Sean Burnett
    C=64
    Kr=26
    E=51
    vP=66

    Sean Burnett is a relief pitcher...average one at best. His profile is not one of a starting pitcher. His Kr is terrible...and the rest of his attributes are only marginal/average...that indicates more of a relief pitcher than a starter.

    Clint Johnston
    C=12
    Kr=78
    E=41
    vP=36

    This is a terrible profile. I do not really see a redeeming quality here.

    These profiles are completely different than Ranaudo's and below I will compare his profile to some others and this will help conclude that his upside is greater than all of the above...and he has a greater chance of becoming not just an average ML starting pitcher, but a top of the rotation starter.

    What Anthony Ranaudo IS
    I see Anthony Ranaudo as being similar to the following pitchers in many ways. I will say, though, that Ranaudo has been said to be very raw, and I do see that with him. So as I continue to go through this I will reiterate that there is at least one attribute that Ranaudo can improve on which will put him even MORE on par with those I am comparing him to below.

    Anthony Ranaudo
    C= 40
    Kr=84
    E= 95
    vP= 50

    The attribute I think Ranaudo can improve on is his control. If you watch him--or if more objectively if you read about him--you can tell that he can improve upon his control. With some minor league seasoning...and some coaching I think his C can easily get into the 50s. He has already improved in college. His control has improved from his high school days, and one has to remember that he is STILL young. Ranaudo is going to be 20 during this season...certainly not an elder statesman. He dominated a strong SEC at 19 years old. That's a good sign...his improvement in C has improved and I think it will continue to do so into the 50s.

    Mark Prior
    C=58
    Kr= 97
    E= 75
    vP= 46

    Prior has a better Kr and his ability to maintain a great k9 is what made him great. As we continue to compare, though, we will see that while Prior and Lincecum's Kr are better...that does not preclude Ranaudo from being a dominant top of the rotation starter.

    Tim Lincecum
    C=35
    Kr=96
    E=82
    vP=79

    Very similar profile to Prior...hopefully he has better luck in the health department. His control rating is lower than Ranaudo's but in terms of his Kr and E they are very similar--almost just flip-flopped...their collegiate k9 are similar.

    Josh Beckett
    C=67
    Kr=86
    E=81
    vP=58

    As I will discuss below in Justin Verlander comparison...if Ranaudo can improve his C to where I think he can--into the 50s--then this is a good comparison. The Kr, E, and vP are all similar and if he could get his C up then that would be similar as well. This comparison is also improved by the exposure that Verlander has had to big games already...something Beckett has excelled at.

    Justin Verlander
    C=59
    Kr=84
    E=78
    vP=76

    This may just be the best profile for comparison (along with Josh Beckett's). If I have adequately conceived of Ranaudo's upward trend in control...and if I am correct that he can get that into the 50s then you have for comparison sake similar control, Kr, and E (although Ranaudo's is better in E than Verlander) as Verlander. Furthermore, their collegiate k9 are very similar as well which is a good indicator here. Since Verlander is one of the first round success stories I think this is an interesting comparison. Furthermore, Verlander broke into the league at 22...Ranaudo will go into the draft at 20 and thus would have essentially two full years to reach the big leagues compared to Verlander's age. Furthermore, I would like to point out that Verlander pitched 334 collegiate innings, while Ranaudo has pitched only around 132-133. (I will discuss innings later).

    These are the comparisons that, as a synthesis, are good for Ranaudo. Verlander and Beckett are the best comparisons. The key, obviously is to develop Ranaduo--if we'd draft him--in a way to give him the best likelihood of success, but the tools are clearly there for him to develop nicely into a Justin Verlander type pitcher.

    I would also like to stress here that Ranaudo is different from a lot of college pitchers as he will not have pitched 330-400+ innings in college. It IS important to watch, though, to see if his innings explode this year. If he is in the 140-150 inning range at the end of the season then you may see me back off of this...as that big of a jump in innings right away for such a young pitcher I do not think would be safe...but if he could be around the 130-135 range and be as dominant as he was last year...then it is a safe progression.

    Conclusion
    In concluding this post I would like to say that I do conceive of Ranaudo as a Justin Verlander type pitcher. A guy who can be dominant and carry the front end of the rotation. Even if he falls short of Verlander I still see him as a top of the rotation 1-2 slot pitcher. His attributes are aptly comparable to some of the better pitchers in baseball and he doesn't have negative injury marks or excessive inning history against him right now either. It is my opinion that drafting a pitcher with Verlander like upside with youth to develop and some more projectability in the form of control...while not a completely safe pick is a pick the Pirates should make if he is there...


    My next post will analyze Bryce Brentz and why I think that he may not profile as as great of a hitter as Ranaudo does pitcher. Again, Ranaudo is not Stephen Strasburg, but few are...
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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Come on kipper... now it's your turn to...


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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by irahuss View Post
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    Come on kipper... now it's your turn to...



    Not wasting my time. Who knows, maybe Benny is right, maybe he isn't. All I know is that despite talent and whatever else, if we draft a pitcher at #2 the luckiest baseball team and most fortunate baseball team in all of MLB is going to be part of a group that's produced 3 good MLB pitchers out of 17 since 1999.

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Other than one poster calling for the Pirates to draft Bryce Brentz I don't believe anyone has said he is the best hitter in the draft even though he's probably in the conversation. Brentz has been only used as an example in posts since his name was brought up….at least that is my take. Also…..again it's too early to anoint anyone just yet.

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    Other than one poster calling for the Pirates to draft Bryce Brentz I don't believe anyone has said he is the best hitter in the draft even though he's probably in the conversation. Brentz has been only used as an example in posts since his name was brought up….at least that is my take. Also…..again it's too early to anoint anyone just yet.
    That's correct. In February, you have to be pretty dumb to lay all of your eggs into arguing for a specific player or not especially in a draft like this one that's most like an even bigger crapshoot of talent/players than last years draft.

    Brentz was really on used as an example in my case because he was a hitter with pretty solid projections and is currently getting mentioned in Top 5's.

    Players will rise and fall with their play this season. we saw it happen last year

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Very nice information Benny. Enjoyed reading it. Thanks for the post! One thing I noticed on comparing, while it's fair to compare Renaudo to Verlander, I think it's inappropriate to compare him to Beckett since Beckett was a high school pitcher.

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by indybucfan View Post
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    Very nice information Benny. Enjoyed reading it. Thanks for the post! One thing I noticed on comparing, while it's fair to compare Renaudo to Verlander, I think it's inappropriate to compare him to Beckett since Beckett was a high school pitcher.
    That I agree with...the scouting profile is similar, but obviously they have taken different paths (Ranaudo and Beckett).
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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    Other than one poster calling for the Pirates to draft Bryce Brentz I don't believe anyone has said he is the best hitter in the draft even though he's probably in the conversation. Brentz has been only used as an example in posts since his name was brought up….at least that is my take. Also…..again it's too early to anoint anyone just yet.
    I don't think I "called" for them to draft him. I wanted to get some interesting speculation going about who they should take and wanted people to think outside the box and not just say the standard "Harper is da bestest prospect ever".
    I've also said that Cox is interesting, and Harper wouldn't disgust me if they evaluated him that highly. Still, if I had to guess, Brentz would be my guess for who they will end up taking.

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    LSU announced that Ranaudo is going to miss his next start with "elbow soreness". They said it could be anywhere from just the one start to 3-4 weeks that he's sidelined. It's supposed to just be something minor with no structural damage, but we'll see what happens now.

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by jnn123 View Post
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    LSU announced that Ranaudo is going to miss his next start with "elbow soreness". They said it could be anywhere from just the one start to 3-4 weeks that he's sidelined. It's supposed to just be something minor with no structural damage, but we'll see what happens now.
    Not good news for a flame thrower, especially a 2 pitch guy like Renaudo

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    Not good news for a flame thrower, especially a 2 pitch guy like Renaudo

    Not good news for a certain poster...

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    I Still think we need to draft the best middle infielder available this time. Save some cash and exceed slot values on other guys later like they did last year.

    There is not one great can't miss prospect in this years draft.

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by wiggles View Post
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    I Still think we need to draft the best middle infielder available this time. Save some cash and exceed slot values on other guys later like they did last year.

    There is not one great can't miss prospect in this years draft.
    BPA.....

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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by jnn123 View Post
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    LSU announced that Ranaudo is going to miss his next start with "elbow soreness". They said it could be anywhere from just the one start to 3-4 weeks that he's sidelined. It's supposed to just be something minor with no structural damage, but we'll see what happens now.
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    Default Re: Anthony Ranaudo vs. Bryce Brentz

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    Not good news for a certain poster...
    but good news for Dr.Andrews' future patients list

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