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Thread: Question for PFVA

      
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    Default Question for PFVA

    Just wanted to post this to ask PFVA a quick question.

    I know you will say its still early and that's fine with me, but I just wanted to get your EARLY feel here:

    IS this the most high school top heavy draft in recent memory?
    - Bryce Harper
    - James Taillon
    - Manny Machado
    - Josh Sale
    - Yordy Cabrera
    - A.J. Cole

    BA actually hypothesized that Taillon could be the first RH H.S. pitcher ever to go first overall. Harper has been touted as the best thing since sliced bread...and Sale is by far the best high school hitter (unless we want to include Harper like I am) and seems like he's easily on par hitting wise with many of the best college bats. Likewise, Manny Machado might be the best overall shortstop in the draft.

    It seems VERY high school heavy...wanted to get your opinion.
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBen2112 View Post
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    Just wanted to post this to ask PFVA a quick question.

    I know you will say its still early and that's fine with me, but I just wanted to get your EARLY feel here:

    IS this the most high school top heavy draft in recent memory?
    - Bryce Harper
    - James Taillon
    - Manny Machado
    - Josh Sale
    - Yordy Cabrera
    - A.J. Cole

    BA actually hypothesized that Taillon could be the first RH H.S. pitcher ever to go first overall. Harper has been touted as the best thing since sliced bread...and Sale is by far the best high school hitter (unless we want to include Harper like I am) and seems like he's easily on par hitting wise with many of the best college bats. Likewise, Manny Machado might be the best overall shortstop in the draft.

    It seems VERY high school heavy...wanted to get your opinion.

    I don't know about that....last year had some pretty good high end HS pitching talent. Machado and Sale (among others) are 2 guys I like for the Pirates but # 2 that might be a bit high for them.

    Ben did you see that Taillon had a 19 K no hitter his last start?

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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    I don't know about that....last year had some pretty good high end HS pitching talent. Machado and Sale (among others) are 2 guys I like for the Pirates but # 2 that might be a bit high for them.

    [HIGH-LIGHT]Ben did you see that Taillon had a 19 K no hitter his last start?[/HIGH-LIGHT]
    Indeed...I also thought I saw that he was hitting 99 MPH on the radar gun...This just seems a really top heavy HS draft...I mean as one continually updates one's top 10 it seems that 4 of the top 5 or so players are HS, which is pretty unique I think.

    I like Machado and Sale as well, but I wonder if they would go with a HS'er that high...Beckham is turning out ok for TB.
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBen2112 View Post
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    Indeed...I also thought I saw that he was hitting 99 MPH on the radar gun...This just seems a really top heavy HS draft...I mean as one continually updates one's top 10 it seems that 4 of the top 5 or so players are HS, which is pretty unique I think.

    I like Machado and Sale as well, but I wonder if they would go with a HS'er that high...Beckham is turning out ok for TB.
    I still think the Pirates are hoping for a college bat to step forward. If they would pick Taillon that would be a big change in management philosophy.

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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
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    I still think the Pirates are hoping for a college bat to step forward. If they would pick Taillon that would be a big change in management philosophy.
    I do not think they'd pick Taillon...is he represented by Scott Boras btw??

    Taillon has some pretty impressive raw tools though.

    The best college bat at this point in time is Chris Duffy--yeah...I know the name YIKES! LOL. He's a "triple crown" threat right now (undrafted last year)...4th in BA, 1st in RBI, 1st in HRs...Hes NOT going to go #2 overall though LOL.

    The top college picks in terms of bats right now, though, are likely Bryce Brentz and Zack Cox...maybe Christian Colon, although he's struggled.

    The top players are, in my mind:
    1. Bryce Harper
    2. James Taillon
    3. Chris Sale
    4. Deck McGuire
    5/6. Zack Cox/Bryce Brentz
    7. Drew Pomerantz
    8. Manny Machado
    9. A.J. Cole
    (I still think that Ranaudo is a better prospect than McGuire even, but at this point cant include him b/c of the injury)
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBen2112 View Post
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    I do not think they'd pick Taillon...is he represented by Scott Boras btw??

    Taillon has some pretty impressive raw tools though.

    The best college bat at this point in time is [HIGH-LIGHT]Chris Duffy[/HIGH-LIGHT]--yeah...I know the name YIKES! LOL. He's a "triple crown" threat right now (undrafted last year)...4th in BA, 1st in RBI, 1st in HRs...Hes NOT going to go #2 overall though LOL.

    The top college picks in terms of bats right now, though, are likely Bryce Brentz and Zack Cox...maybe Christian Colon, although he's struggled.

    The top players are, in my mind:
    1. Bryce Harper
    2. James Taillon
    3. Chris Sale
    4. Deck McGuire
    5/6. Zack Cox/Bryce Brentz
    7. Drew Pomerantz
    8. Manny Machado
    9. A.J. Cole
    (I still think that Ranaudo is a better prospect than McGuire even, but at this point cant include him b/c of the injury)
    Duffy is a college senior there has to be a reason he wasn't drafted last year.

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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    I looked Duffy up a couple weeks ago to see what the story was. Coming out of HS he wasn't quite a top 200 guy, but he was a pretty solid prospect. Bonus demands actually pushed him down a little the 9th round, and the White Sox never got him to come down far enough to sign him. I guess the knock on him was that he didn't have a position and that he wasn't great at recognizing pitches. The big strength was supposed to be raw power, but it seems like it just never developed. His junior year last year he had basically the same season as his freshman and sophomore years and never really developed in any area.

    Freshman: .283/.350/.462 (.812) 8 HR 9 2B
    Sophomore: .282/.399/.483 (.882) 8 HR 6 2B
    Junior: .285/.349/.488 (.837) 6 HR 13 2B 3 3B

    I don't know what happened this year, but he's hitting:
    .530/.584/1.120 (1.704) 12 HR 11 2B 1 3B
    And that's in less than half the season.

    I'm sure someone will draft him, but not in the higher rounds of the draft. I really have no idea where he'll go. Maybe around the 9th round like he did 4 years ago.

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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Sale is interesting in that he profiles as a guy that our head scout really really loves and goes after - Rawness. Everything I've read about Sale says that he has insane raw power that you can't teach but the rest of his game is lacking. How hard up are they for power in the near future?

    Taillon is represented by the Hendrick's Brothers, not Boras. I don't know if that will make any difference. I guess if the Pirates are leaning towards pitching and they think Taillon has Ace stuff and hasn't been ruined by college coaches compared to Ranaudo who most scouts don't predict to be an Ace anyways.. I'd go with Taillon personally (between the 2). Kid is almost 6'7" and not even done growing with a mid to high 90's fastball and a filthy curveball that is his out pitch
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by jnn123 View Post
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    I looked Duffy up a couple weeks ago to see what the story was. Coming out of HS he wasn't quite a top 200 guy, but he was a pretty solid prospect. Bonus demands actually pushed him down a little the 9th round, and the White Sox never got him to come down far enough to sign him. I guess the knock on him was that he didn't have a position and that he wasn't great at recognizing pitches. The big strength was supposed to be raw power, but it seems like it just never developed. His junior year last year he had basically the same season as his freshman and sophomore years and never really developed in any area.

    Freshman: .283/.350/.462 (.812) 8 HR 9 2B
    Sophomore: .282/.399/.483 (.882) 8 HR 6 2B
    Junior: .285/.349/.488 (.837) 6 HR 13 2B 3 3B

    I don't know what happened this year, but he's hitting:
    .530/.584/1.120 (1.704) 12 HR 11 2B 1 3B
    And that's in less than half the season.

    I'm sure someone will draft him, but not in the higher rounds of the draft. I really have no idea where he'll go. Maybe around the 9th round like he did 4 years ago.
    I was thinking he'd be this year's Den Dekker.
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    Sale is interesting in that he profiles as a guy that our head scout really really loves and goes after - [HIGH-LIGHT]Rawness. Everything I've read about Sale says that he has insane raw power that you can't teach[/HIGH-LIGHT] but the rest of his game is lacking. How hard up are they for power in the near future?

    Taillon is represented by the Hendrick's Brothers, not Boras. I don't know if that will make any difference. I guess if the Pirates are leaning towards pitching and they think [HIGH-LIGHT]Taillon has Ace stuff[/HIGH-LIGHT] and hasn't been ruined by college coaches compared to Ranaudo who most scouts don't predict to be an Ace anyways.. I'd go with Taillon personally (between the 2). [HIGH-LIGHT]Kid is almost 6'7" and not even done growing with a mid to high 90's fastball and a filthy curveball that is his out pitch[/HIGH-LIGHT]
    Couple things:
    1) Sale would not be the best HS bat if Harper were still in HS obviously...Also people have to understand that a kid like Harper b/c of the hype has become a VERY polarizing figure (which isn't his fault at all) and actually if you just step back from the hype and consider things...Harper is a better prospect than Sale. Period. He's got more power projectability and is already hitting at a decently high level against better competition. (Again I am not on the Harper bandwagon, just comparing the two "high schoolers")

    2) Taillon does have ace stuff. I am not sure, though, how or if the organization would go about drafting Taillon...its more risky obviously than drafting a college player...his ace projectability is clearly there as he has three super plus pitches and another developing pitch

    3) Just wanted to say in response to the last highlighted portion that BA has stated that he's already hit 99 on the radar gun this year (three different games I believe).
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Although I have nothing against the top rated pitchers in this draft, I really think that we need more bats in the system.
    In the last few years, the Pirates have put quite a few talented arms in the Minors through the draft and trades. I believe they need to balance that out this time around and focus on some offensive firepower.
    A well balanced system is the key to the Pirates future.
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by Steelreign View Post
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    Although I have nothing against the top rated pitchers in this draft, I really think that we need more bats in the system.
    In the last few years, the Pirates have put quite a few talented arms in the Minors through the draft and trades. I believe they need to balance that out this time around and focus on some offensive firepower.
    A well balanced system is the key to the Pirates future.
    You really need about 3 pitchers to every one hitter (in terms of prospects) if you want to have success (at least in my mind)...look at Oakland and Tampa Bay--they all have a lot of starting pitching and then several hitters. That, to me, is the best way to build a system.
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by Steelreign View Post
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    Although I have nothing against the top rated pitchers in this draft, I really think that we need more bats in the system.
    In the last few years, the Pirates have put quite a few talented arms in the Minors through the draft and trades. I believe they need to balance that out this time around and focus on some offensive firepower.
    A well balanced system is the key to the Pirates future.
    I'm with you. The Pirates if going by "need" need more impact bats. More power definitely but overall mroe impact bats. We've got intriguing pitching right now, we probably don't have a stand out "ace" but I'm more in favor of stock piling with an abundance of good arms than keying in on one or 2 in a draft to make up for it in the system. More abundance of arms can sometimes net better results in terms of talent overall.
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    I'm with you. The Pirates if going by "need" need more impact bats. More power definitely but overall mroe impact bats. We've got intriguing pitching right now, we probably don't have a stand out "ace" but I'm more in favor of stock piling with an abundance of good arms than keying in on one or 2 in a draft to make up for it in the system. More abundance of arms can sometimes net better results in terms of talent overall.
    I generally agree with your last statement. I do not, though, condone drafting for "need" in the MLB draft (and I KNOW that is not what you're saying) it just is not a sound draft philosophy. You take the best player available in the MLB draft...and it very well could be that a pitcher is that best player...and if that is true then you take the pitcher.

    (Note: i will say here what I have said before: if there are two players are are equally graded by your scouting team and you are at #1 and you are equally liking BOTH players who are available you may THEN be best suited at choosing the one that is more along the need area of your team, but such situations are INCREDIBLY rare).
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    Default Re: Question for PFVA

    The precise composition of a given team's minor league system in terms of numbers of players by position is an interesting study. Historically, when the Pirates have been winners they've been an organization that develops more hitters than pitchers, and that trades hitters for veteran pitchers to get them over the top. This is certainly a sound strategy, and it's how the team, for example, landed hurlers like Bert Blyleven and Zane Smith in years past.


    On the other hand, maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to try and stockpile at least a handful of elite arms down on the farm, then trade them for great position player talent? In general, pitchers are the more scarce and valuable commodity, and one would think they could be leveraged for bigger returns in trade. The trouble with doing it that way is that there's a practical limit to how many pitchers you can really develop at a given point in time, because they are fewer in number relative to position players, and because there's only so many innings to go around. And of course, pitchers on the whole are a riskier investment; they tend to break down and flame out far more often than position players do. Add in the Pirates' permanent small market status, and maybe the former approach is what we'll more or less always have to implement.


    Just thinkin' out loud here....
    Last edited by williamjpellas; Mar-25-2010 at 10:28 AM.

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