Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

      
  1. #1
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    [IMGL]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/09TReju0ujeQJ/x160.jpg[/IMGL]After about a week discussing Iwamura I want to dive into Iwamura's stats since I could only handle so much of the senseless "he sucks" and copying and pasting of his Batting Average.

    For most of this season there's 4 things that can easily be said about Akinori Iwamura just from watching the games and never looking at a stat sheet..

    1. He works counts and drives up pitch counts
    2. He draws walks
    3. He doesn't strike out much
    4. He's not hitting/getting on base at all.

    Now we dive into his stats.

    I decided to use his 2008 numbers since there was a complete season to use (Aki sat out a bunch of games in 2009 with an ACL).


    [IMGR]http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/images/201004/20100411wp_bucs_160.jpg[/IMGR]I highlighted the most important stat there - BABIP. I highlighted it because it's pretty clear for those that understand those numbers that Iwamura at the plate is still showing good discipline. His BB% is actually the highest it's been in his MLB career. His K% is right around what is his career norm. It's a little high in general, but it is what it has always been. His OBP (On Base Percentage) is affected by what his Batting Average is, so there's really no importance in that stat to be honest and really you can throw away just about every other stat when you see a BABIP that low.

    What this is telling me is that Aki is making contact at the plate and his eye actually seems to be better this year. When he's making contact, he's getting out. A .222 BABIP really suggests a lot of bad luck especially when his career BABIP average is .337. Make no mistakes about it, that .222 is affecting everything other stat number you could look at. There's no good explanation either. I mentioned last year and again early this season in my Predictions that a guy like Andy Laroche was the beneficiary of poor luck. Good MLB BB% and K% but a terrible .286 BABIP. Because of that, his Batting Average was where it was at. This season, Andy Laroche is making the same contact he did last season. His K% and BB% are very close but his BABIP is .343. Adding nearly 60 points to your BABIP is going to boost your Batting Average and Andy Laroche is hitting almost 50 points higher right now than he did last season.

    Diving into Iwamura's numbers a little more I took a look at Fangraphs and their "Batted Ball" numbers. While there's no stat that can give you an ultimate conclusion, sometimes certain ones can help narrow things down. One thing that jumped out right away which is something I was personally hoping to find was that Iwamura's Ground Ball% is up this year.

    Here are Iwamura's Ground Ball/Fly Ball/Line Drive percentages


    Iwamura simply isn't getting underneath the ball and chances are he's swinging too soon, not by much but enough. Without any film to look at to see hand speed, hip movement, leg pushes etc... I really don't have a great explanation but a simple guess leads me to believe that it's a combination of weight and injury.

    [IMGL]http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/04rddqg0Kj0sP/x160.jpg[/IMGL]Dejan Kovacevic recently just threw out a bunch of possibilities for Iwamura's struggles. Some were opinions from scouts, some were general fan guesses but the one that stuck with me was "added bulk" which I mentioned in a previous thread. Iwamura is listed at 200lbs. for the Pirates. In 2008 before the ACL injury, the last full healthy season he had, Iwamura was at 275lbs. As a guy who is right around Iwamura's height at 5'9" i can tell you that 25 lbs. makes a HUGE difference with pretty much everything. I'm only a year older than Iwamura but it doesn't matter, because when you get over the age of 30, that type of weight gain is more of a burden to carry and get rid of than it was when you were in your mid 20's. I don't doubt for a second that the "Added Bulk" has slowed his swing, his hips turning during his swing. His wrists are probably a little off in his swing. All of these things can figure in to a guy getting on top of balls, over compensating and swinging too soon..

    I hate to say it but the weight gain is an issue and is something that Neal Huntington should've addressed in the offseason. He knew Iwamura was overweight. This isn't to suggest that Iwamura's weight gain is all fat either. It could very well be muscle mass but it's bulk nonetheless. Perhaps Huntington didn't care, and figured that he was in shape despite the weight gain. I can't fault Huntington there either. Unfortunately we are seeing a result that is far from expectations. It might be a matter of comfort and adjustment for Iwamura, but how long do you wait for that adjustment with the results Iwamura is producing? Yes, there's some added bad luck in there as mentioned before, that BABIP doesn't slip that much without some bad luck but there's much more to it all.

    I'm not going to say more than a few words on this but the Weight Gain along with more of a subconscious protection of the left ACL is most likely the cause for the poor defense. 25lbs. of added weight throws off mobility, agility and quickness which are all things that appear to be off with Iwamura's defensive game.

    At some point and some point very soon, the production has to increase
    Last edited by Kipper; May-10-2010 at 08:45 AM.
    The Standard Is The Standard and The Pittsburgh Sports Forum Is The Standard


  2. #2
    Hittman's Avatar
    Status : Hittman is offline
    Rank : Bench Warmer
    Join Date : Nov 11, 2009
    Posts : 408
    Threads : 21
    Last Online : Feb-17-2013 @ 11:11 PM

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Aki should be placed on the DL. Let his knee get some more time to heal.

  3. #3
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Quote Originally Posted by Hittman View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Aki should be placed on the DL. Let his knee get some more time to heal.
    It probably doesn't need time to heal. s it is with most people coming off an injury especially one like an ACL tear, it's more about that player regaining confidence and comfort in using that injured body part than anything.

    I'm also not quite convinced that it's the injury as much as it is the added bulk. I think the addition of 25 lbs. is affecting his game more. He's not going to lose 25 lbs. in the matter of a week or 2 or probably even a month, so it's a matter of adjustment. There just has to be a line drawn and fairly soon where you say "we need to see results, the adjustments should've been here"
    The Standard Is The Standard and The Pittsburgh Sports Forum Is The Standard


  4. #4
    tocchet92's Avatar
    Status : tocchet92 is offline
    Rank : Major Leaguer
    Join Date : Oct 19, 2009
    Posts : 1,383
    Threads : 138
    Last Online : Jul-14-2012 @ 11:09 AM

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Its reasonable to assume his hitting will pickup.

    A more significant criticism is his play in the field. He has been awful. The knee injury makes it unlikely that he will ever play an adequate major league second base again. His fielding gaffes and lack of range are hurting this team significantly.

    Much of the criticism of Iwamura on this board and in the media emphasizes his problems in the field over and above his struggles at the plate.

    This isn't Jeff Clement we're talking about here. Iwamura has no future with this team.

  5. #5
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Quote Originally Posted by tocchet92 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Its reasonable to assume his hitting will pickup.

    A more significant criticism is his play in the field. He has been awful. The knee injury makes it unlikely that he will ever play an adequate major league second base again. His fielding gaffes and lack of range are hurting this team significantly.

    Much of the criticism of Iwamura on this board and in the media emphasizes his problems in the field over and above his struggles at the plate.

    This isn't Jeff Clement we're talking about here. Iwamura has no future with this team.
    I'm still convinced that the 25 lbs. of added weight is affecting the range and probably his defense as a whole. Actually, there';s no way at 5'9" and adding 25 lbs. isn't going to affect your range. That much weight is going to to take away from your quickness both with your legs and arm.

    I agree he has no future here. With Neil Walker showing some life finally at AAA and andy Laroche as an option if they decide to realistically use him, they aren't going to keep a 31/32 year old 2B at Iwamura's price range. Anyway you slice it, you're not going to get the return value even if Iwamura hits like he did in say 2008. He was a viable stopgap that cost nothing on a team that coming into this season lacked a 2B after Delwyn Young failed miserably last year converting.

    For his own value and for our ability to trade him... we don't want to be benching Iwamura or anything else. we need to get him right and his value back up there
    The Standard Is The Standard and The Pittsburgh Sports Forum Is The Standard


  6. #6
    tocchet92's Avatar
    Status : tocchet92 is offline
    Rank : Major Leaguer
    Join Date : Oct 19, 2009
    Posts : 1,383
    Threads : 138
    Last Online : Jul-14-2012 @ 11:09 AM

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I'm still convinced that the 25 lbs. of added weight is affecting the range and probably his defense as a whole. Actually, there';s no way at 5'9" and adding 25 lbs. isn't going to affect your range. That much weight is going to to take away from your quickness both with your legs and arm.

    I agree he has no future here. With Neil Walker showing some life finally at AAA and andy Laroche as an option if they decide to realistically use him, they aren't going to keep a 31/32 year old 2B at Iwamura's price range. Anyway you slice it, you're not going to get the return value even if Iwamura hits like he did in say 2008. He was a viable stopgap that cost nothing on a team that coming into this season lacked a 2B after Delwyn Young failed miserably last year converting.

    For his own value and for our ability to trade him... we don't want to be benching Iwamura or anything else. we need to get him right and his value back up there
    I agree. Aki is fat and has a bum knee.
    As you know, I think he should be and will be DFA'd by mid-season b/c I don't think anyone will trade for him. For the sake of our pitching staff, I hope he sits more than he plays until then.

    Sayonara Iwamura! (man thats clever, eh?)

  7. #7
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Quote Originally Posted by tocchet92 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I agree. Aki is fat and has a bum knee.
    As you know, I think he should be and will be DFA'd by mid-season b/c I don't think anyone will trade for him. For the sake of our pitching staff, I hope he sits more than he plays until then.

    Sayonara Iwamura! (man thats clever, eh?)
    I disagree with him being fat. There's enver been a report that has said he's overweight, out of shape etc... you can't make false judgements like that. He weight s 25lbs. more than he did in 2008 and the most we've seen is it's added "bulk". could all be in the form of muscle. Doesn't make him fat, just means he weighs more. 25lbs. though at his age is a lot to take on though.

    They'll give Iwamura every chance to right himself by the trade deadline because they want to get something in return for him. I'll be surprised if Iwamura gets DFA'd before the trade deadline. huntington will take a bag of balls before DFA'ing Iwamura
    The Standard Is The Standard and The Pittsburgh Sports Forum Is The Standard


  8. #8
    rbilak's Avatar
    Status : rbilak is offline
    Rank : Bench Warmer
    Join Date : Nov 24, 2009
    Location : Shreveport LA
    Posts : 299
    Threads : 40
    Last Online : Jul-17-2010 @ 10:52 AM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    1. He works counts and drives up pitch counts
    2. He draws walks
    3. He doesn't strike out much
    4. He's not hitting/getting on base at all.

    Added a couple points.



    5. MLB is now considering changing the name of the Mendoza line to the Iwarmura line
    6. Not saying he is slow but if he was in the Perigos race I would bet on him to come in last place.
    7. point 4, he does draw walks, so he does get on base. The problem is, much like watching Cutch hit a double all the way to the wall that rolled, he cannot run, he had to hold at third because he is slow. Kip you are seeing the Aki light. 4.5 million wasted on him plus a rubber armed pitcher.

  9. #9
    rbilak's Avatar
    Status : rbilak is offline
    Rank : Bench Warmer
    Join Date : Nov 24, 2009
    Location : Shreveport LA
    Posts : 299
    Threads : 40
    Last Online : Jul-17-2010 @ 10:52 AM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    PITTSBURGH -- When general manager Neal Huntington announced the acquisition of Aki Iwamura in October, he was asked about the second baseman's surgically repaired left knee. Would it affect Iwamura's range? Might it still linger in 2010?
    At the time, Huntington said he was confident that the injury would present no problems a year later. Now, though, Huntington concedes that it could be part of the reason for Iwamura's disappointing season start.

    A .281 hitter in three seasons with the Rays, Iwamura entered Sunday hitting just .194 with a .294 on-base percentage. He has just two hits in 20 at-bats so far this month.

    "He cares, and like most professionals when they struggle, they begin to make their problems worse because they begin to try too hard," Huntington said.

    The knee, though, has appeared to be an even bigger issue in the field. Iwamura has shown a lack of defensive range, and he has been slow to turn double plays, particularly on the receiving end of the shortstop's feed. It was while turning a double play last year that Iwamura was taken out and suffered a torn ACL. That could explain some of his hesitancy now.

    "The knee is probably a bigger factor than we recognized in September, just in terms of confidence," Huntington said. "I think that the contact on the double play -- using the bag as a shield rather than coming through on the double play -- that's human nature. I know [infield coach] Carlos [Garcia] will continue to work with him to do the things he needs to do to maximize his ability to put something on his throws and also protect himself."


    More on Aki. I give Neal this, he does own up to mistakes now.

  10. #10
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Quote Originally Posted by rbilak View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    1. He works counts and drives up pitch counts
    2. He draws walks
    3. He doesn't strike out much
    4. He's not hitting/getting on base at all.

    Added a couple points.



    5. MLB is now considering changing the name of the Mendoza line to the Iwarmura line

    You can't take that away from Adam Laroche and the monstrosity of cash that ******bag made while hitting below .200 for the first 3 months of the year

    6. Not saying he is slow but if he was in the Perigos race I would bet on him to come in last place.

    25lbs. added. I know I can't run as fast as I did when I was 25 lbs. lighter, not to mention the guy is 31 years old. You don't see Jason Bay steraling bags anymore. Age is a *****


    7. point 4, he does draw walks, so he does get on base. The problem is, much like watching Cutch hit a double all the way to the wall that rolled, he cannot run, he had to hold at third because he is slow.

    Doesn't matter. Getting on base is getting on base and you're exaggerating the speed badly. His quickness is more affected than his speed. Guys are held at 3rd by the COACH for plenty of reasons, a good throw and relay, pick up etc...


    Kip you are seeing the Aki light.

    If this is the "light" version I'd hate to see the Zero Carbs Aki

    4.5 million wasted on him plus a rubber armed pitcher.

    Rubber armed pitcher?

    $4.5 million on 1 year contracts isn't a waste, not on a team never meant to compete for a playoff spot and is below their annual payroll ceiling by a $15-20 million. Iwamura doesn't hurt us at all long term and thusfor doesn't hurt us. We got him in a trade for nothing (unless you were one of the people that thought Chavez was suddenly great after he was traded ), with money we had to waste and took a chance because we had nothing for 2B ready to step in at the MLB level. A waste would be Ray Shero trading a good prospect for a bum like Alexei Ponikarovsky who is sitting in the bench during the playoffs. that is a move that hurts now and long term... Iwamura does neither..

    Also... with Aki's struggles and if they continue you might see a guy like Walker get a chance or maybe Andy get some time at 2B .... who knows...
    ,

  11. #11
    rbilak's Avatar
    Status : rbilak is offline
    Rank : Bench Warmer
    Join Date : Nov 24, 2009
    Location : Shreveport LA
    Posts : 299
    Threads : 40
    Last Online : Jul-17-2010 @ 10:52 AM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Iwamura's Offensive Struggles Statistically

    Kip he pitched in 71 games last year. To me that is a guy with a rubber arm. Also for 4.5 we could have built a second Academy in the Dominican! As for Poni, like I said, I can admit a mistake, he has been Aki-like for the Pens.

Quick Reply Quick Reply

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Members who have read this thread: 0

There are no members to list at the moment.

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •