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Thread: The Next Carl Crawford

      
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    Default The Next Carl Crawford

    "The Next Carl Crawford
    by Dave Cameron - May 21, 2010

    Iíve spent a lot of time thinking about Carl Crawford this week. Yesterday, it led me back to Rickey Henderson. Today, we go the other direction, as Iíve been struck by just how shockingly similar one of the gameís best young outfielders is to the Rays star.

    First, hereís Crawfordís 2010 season line:

    .316/.376/.510, 8.5% BB%, 18.5% K%, .194 ISO, .368 BABIP, 10/4 SB/CS .386 wOBA

    And now, hereís Andrew McCutchenís 2010 season line:

    .327/.382/.487, 7.6% BB%, 17.3% K%, .160 ISO, .371 BABIP, 12/4 SB/CS, .390 wOBA

    Both McCutchen and Crawford are guys whose most obvious tool is speed, but then offer a surprising amount of punch at the plate. They hit the ball hard, utilizing their gap power to sprint around the bases and rack up doubles and triples. Theyíre not identical, of course, as Crawford is a lefty and McCutchen is a righty, and Crawford is three inches taller as well, but they are very similar ballplayers.

    Despite all the problems the Pirates have faced this year, they still have to be thrilled with how quickly their center fielder has turned into one of the gameís best. Heís still just 23 years of age, but has now racked up essentially one full yearís worth of playing time in the big leagues (148 games, 664 plate appearances), and heís been worth +4.5 wins over that time. Thatís an all-star level performance, and heís done it as a rookie. In fact, over the last calendar year, McCutchen has the highest wOBA (.377) of any center fielder in baseball.

    It might be a little silly to go looking for the next Carl Crawford when the current one hasnít even turned 30 yet, but McCutchen has staked his claim as being the next in line to Crawfordís throne, ruling the land of excitement with line drives and triples. Pittsburgh has a lot of fixing to do, but they have one rock solid piece in place; their center fielder is already in the discussion for best in the game at a very young age."
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...carl-crawford/

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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    Does anyone realy have any idea what fangraphs uses as "weighted" for a couple of their Advanced stats? I saw the wOBA mentioned here but I have no idea what they are using to weight. 'tis why I generally ignore those stats. If there's no clear formula to tell you how a stat becomes. I looked quickly on their site but couldnt find anything.

    Cutch is one hell of a player and it's pretty awesome to know and think that this guy is not even near his peak yet at the age of 23. Barring an injury he's just going to get better and better. it might be in the Pirates best interests next season to consider locking him up long term 'til he's 30. Long term deals are always a risk due to an injury, but if Cutch keeps getting better, we're going to have a real hard time being able to afford to keep him down the road. Crawford is making $10 million per right now and entering this season at the age of 28 in the Final year of his contract it's been rumored he could see $12-14 million per.
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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Does anyone realy have any idea what fangraphs uses as "weighted" for a couple of their Advanced stats? I saw the wOBA mentioned here but I have no idea what they are using to weight. 'tis why I generally ignore those stats. If there's no clear formula to tell you how a stat becomes. I looked quickly on their site but couldnt find anything.
    The calculation is done based on linear weights of each plate appearance. An out is worth 0, an unintentional walk has the least weight, and a HR has the most weight. The factors used are actually .15x the actual linear weight so that the stat is scaled like OBP. Around .340 is average, .310 is pretty bad, anything over .370 is very good, .400 is usually reserved for the best hitters in the league. The calculation goes something like:

    (0.72xBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR +.25xSB - .50xCS) / PA

    Trying to calculate Cutch's really quickly I came up with .384 while Fangraphs has him at .390, but that's most likely because I put a 0 in for reached on error because I couldn't find it anywhere. I assume he has one this year which would bump the calculation up to .389. I assume the difference there is either rounding or I'm just slightly off on the formula.

    Fangraphs uses it in place of OPS because OPS gives too much weight to slugging since the two stats being combined are calculated with different denominators, plus OBP is a little more important anyway.
    Last edited by jnn123; May-21-2010 at 01:47 PM.

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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    (0.72xBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR +.25xSB - .50xCS) / PA
    The above, where did you get those numbers? Are they averages or calculations that you grabbed from Mccutchen to figure out the wOBA?
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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    (0.72xBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR +.25xSB - .50xCS) / PA
    The above, where did you get those numbers? Are they averages or calculations that you grabbed from Mccutchen to figure out the wOBA?
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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    The above, where did you get those numbers? Are they averages or calculations that you grabbed from Mccutchen to figure out the wOBA?
    Those numbers are the constants used in the formula. It's kind of hard to explain where they come from. Basically it's the run creation value of each over an out. A HR, for example is worth 1.7 runs, which is then increased by 15% to scale it like OBP (in the original calculation a league average hitter came out at .300, so they just bumped it up to a number that's more easily comparable). 1.7x1.15=1.955, the HR value used in the calculation.

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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    Crawford's on a similar career path as this guy, but I'd love to see Cutch follow Crawford and end up like:


    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...aineti01.shtml






    He should be in the HOF.

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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    I remember saying way back on the Trib board that I thought McCutchen could develop into a Kenny Lofton type player,and someone ripped me for it. I think it was that Smokey,but he was using one of his other names.
    Are these morons getting dumber or just louder-Mayor Quimby

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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    I've always compared Cutch to Marquis Grissom, both righthanded, both centerfielders, similar speed and power.

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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    Quote Originally Posted by buccoray61 View Post
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    I remember saying way back on the Trib board that I thought McCutchen could develop into a Kenny Lofton type player,and someone ripped me for it. I think it was that Smokey,but he was using one of his other names.
    Gorilla?
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    Default Re: The Next Carl Crawford

    That's the one!!
    Are these morons getting dumber or just louder-Mayor Quimby

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