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Thread: Ross Ohlendorf's struggles

      
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    Default Ross Ohlendorf's struggles

    A good look at Ross Ohlendorf beyond the standard numbers from Rocco DeMaro's new blog at the interestingly URLed http://www.piratesextrainnings.com Looks like he wrote it in the middle of the night before he got the updated numbers on all the stats, but they haven't changed a ton.

    Ohlendorf's struggles; Random Notes
    Thursday 05-27-2010 3:31am ET
    MY COUCH -- Ross Ohlendorf's start to 2010 is troubling.

    His BB/9 (walks per nine innings) is in the neighborhood of 7. If Ross had the innings to qualify, he'd have the highest walk rate in MLB.

    His ERA of 5.11, though bloated, is misleadingly low. Ross has been the beneficiary of some good luck.

    --His HR/FB (home runs per fly ball) is lower than it should be. League average HR/FB is 10.6%. Ross entered his start last night at 6.5%. The implication is that that Ross has been fortunate to post such a low HR/FB%, and that % will regress back to the mean of 10.6% over time.

    --His .273 BABIP entering last night's start is 20 points lower than his career norm and about 30 points below league average. Again, this is a function of luck. It warns that more hits will be falling in against Ross than have to this point.

    Did I mention his already low K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) is down from last year?

    And so is his SwStr% (swinging strike %).

    League average SwStr% is 8.3%. Ross' '09 SwStr% was 8.1%. In 2010, Ross is way off that at 5.7% (prior to his poor start last night).

    For context, pitch-to-contact stalwarts Paul Maholm and Zach Duke have career SwStr%'s of 6.9% and 6.4%, respectively. But because they've never had great stuff, Maholm and Duke have evolved as pitchers to get tons of grounders, which helps mitigate all of the contact that comes from not getting many swinging strikes.

    Not Ross.

    He's never gotten many grounders to begin with. And adding insult to injury, even that already-low GB% (ground balls per ball in play) has dropped by roughly 10% vs. his career average to this point in 2010.

    None of this is good news. In fact, as pitching issues go, this is a real problem.

    --He's walking more batters than any qualifying pitcher in MLB.
    --He's been provably fortunate to post his still-poor 5.11 ERA.
    --His strikeouts are down & he's getting fewer swings and misses than soft-tossing lefties Zach Duke & Paul Maholm.
    --His stuff is more hittable than it has ever been in his MLB career.
    --He's allowing as much contact as Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, but he's getting ~20% fewer ground balls.

    While most are unnecessarily panicking over the horrendous luck Charlie Morton has stumbled into, Ross Ohlendorf is off to a legitimately concerning start to his 2010 season.
    Last edited by jnn123; May-27-2010 at 01:55 PM.

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