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Thread: Break Up The Bucs

      
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    Default Break Up The Bucs

    No really, break them up.

    That's exactly what the management team did when they took over in 2007/2008.

    Here's a great article about what we'd be looking at if we'd kept the 'best outfield in baseball' etc together.

    http://www.bucsdugout.com/2010/8/17/...h-pirates-seen

    Your 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates (Seen from 2007)


    In 2007, Baseball America projected the Pittsburgh Pirates 2010 lineup as:

    C: Ronny Paulino
    1B: Adam LaRoche
    2B: Freddy Sanchez
    SS: Jack Wilson
    3B: Neil Walker
    LF: Jason Bay
    CF: Andrew McCutchen
    RF: Xavier Nady
    SP1: Brad Lincoln
    SP2: Ian Snell
    SP3: Zach Duke
    SP4: Tom Gorzelanny
    SP5: Paul Maholm
    CL: Matt Capps

    How would those Pittsburgh Pirates have done compared to the ones we're watching now? Well, thanks to the magic of Baseball Reference, we can take a look.

    First, a top-level comparison.

    Six position players (Paulino, LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, Bay, and Nady) are no longer with the Pirates. These players have a total WAR of 1.5, with a 2010 payroll of $28.525M.

    Three pitchers (Snell, Gorzelanny, and Capps) are no longer with the Pirates. These three pitchers have a total WAR of 1.0, with a 2010 payroll of $8.55M.

    Keeping these nine players would have contributed 2.5 WAR at a cost of $37.075M for the year.

    Instead, we have the following (treated as if the players were with Pittsburgh for the whole year, which isn't necessarily the case):

    C: Chris Snyder, at $2.25M ($5.25 salary, less $3M received from Arizona in the trade), gives 0.5 WAR

    1B: Garret Jones, at $425k, gives -0.3 WAR.

    SS: Ronny Cedeno, at $1.125M, gives 0.7 WAR

    3B: Pedro Alvarez, at $500k, gives 0.2 WAR. (Walker replaces Sanchez at 2B.)

    LF: Jose Tabata, at $400k, gives 1.0 WAR

    RF: Lastings MIlledge, at $452k, gives -1.3 WAR.

    SP: Ross Ohlendorf, at $439k, gives 1.7 WAR

    SP: Jeff Karstens or James McDonald, at $400k, gives about 1.0 WAR (Karstens is at 1.1, McDonald after three starts at 0.6)

    CL: Joel Hanrahan, at $453k, gives 0.7 WAR.

    The total is a combined 4.2 WAR at a cost of about $6.9M.

    Yes, compared to BA's 2007 projection, the actual Pirates prorate to about 2 wins better - and about $31M cheaper.

    That doesn't even take into consideration the rest of the talent that was acquired in exchange for the players that are no longer with the Pirates:

    Paulino: $1.1M, 0.4 WAR, traded for Jason Jaramillo, $417k, -0.7 WAR.

    LaRoche: $4.5M, 0.6 WAR, traded for Hunter Strickland (A+) and Argenis Diaz.($400k, -0.1 WAR in the majors)

    Sanchez: $6M, -0.2 WAR, traded for Tim Alderson (AA)

    Wilson: $5M, 1.0 WAR, traded (with Snell) for Aaron Pribianic (A+), Brett Lorin (A), Nathan Adcock (A+), Ronny Cedeno ($1.125, 0.7 WAR), Jeff Clement ($405k, -0.7 WAR)

    Jason Bay: $8.625M, 1.0 WAR, traded for Bryan Morris (AA), Andy LaRoche ($450k, -1.1 WAR), Craig Hansen (injured, A+), Brandon Moss (AAA)

    Xavier Nady: $3.3M, -1.3 WAR, traded (with Damaso Marte, $4M, 0.2 WAR) for Jeff Karstens ($400k, 1.1 WAR), Daniel McCutchen ($400k, -0.7 WAR), Ross Ohlendorf ($439k, 1.7 WAR), Jose Tabata ($400k, 1.0 WAR)

    Ian Snell: $4.45M, -1.2 WAR, in AAA, traded with Wilson (above)

    Tom Gorzelanney: $800k, 1.8 WAR, traded (with John Grabow: $2.7M, -0.9 WAR, injured) for Josh Harrison (AA), Jose Ascanio (injured, A+), Kevin Hart (AAA).

    Matt Capps: Non-tendered.

    Even with perfect foreknowledge of outcomes, the only moves that can be considered to have been bad deals for the Pirates are Gorzo and maybe Paulino, who would have both been serviceable starters at reasonable prices.

    - LaRoche is slightly better than the other 1B options, but at 10x the price.
    - Sanchez is replacement level at 15x the price, and would have blocked Walker from 2B.
    - Wilson and Snell - Cedeno is performing the same as Wilson for 1/4 the price, so that exchanges a $4.5M AAA pitcher for three prospects in A/A+ plus Jeff Clement, which is a deal the Pirates should take any day and twice on Sundays.
    - Bay would have been a serviceable RF (assuming he'd move there with Tabata in LF), but again at 20x the price of the other myriad RF options.
    - Nady is 2.3 WAR worse, $3M more expensive, and ten years older than Tabata. Marte is 0.9 WAR worse, $2.6M more expensive, and eight years older than Karstens. Even straight up, that deal is a swindle - and that doesn't count Ohlendorf and Dan McCutchen

    Even non-tendering Capps was at worst a net wash and at best a win, as it opened the space to get Dotel, who turned into Lambo and McDonald.

    So eight "major decisions" (seven trades and one non-tender involving the players that BA considered to be the Pirates' starting-level talent as of 2010), of which five are wins (one - Nady - huge), one a loss (Gorzo), and two somewhere around washes (Paulino slightly negative, the Capps non-tender slightly positive).

    That's not bad management.

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Thanks for that article vandelay. Just another example of building a team from the bottom up is the best and most prudent way to go. I really think we have good times ahead of us.

    POLITICIANS AND DIAPERS SHOULD BE CHANGED OFTEN AND FOR THE SAME REASON!

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Even non-tendering Capps was at worst a net wash and at best a win, as it opened the space to get Dotel, who turned into Lambo and McDonald.
    "Why couldn't we have Dotel and Capps? Because Bob Nutting didn't want to pony up the money" ~ Bob Smizik





    Solid article, I guess. I swear I've seen these a few times at a couple of different blogs the past eyar. Didn't you do something very quickly on this subject, Vandy?
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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    "Why couldn't we have Dotel and Capps? Because Bob Nutting didn't want to pony up the money" ~ Bob Smizik





    Solid article, I guess. I swear I've seen these a few times at a couple of different blogs the past eyar. Didn't you do something very quickly on this subject, Vandy?

    I think that I did something similar, but I'm sure it wasn't as detailed as this.

    I'm kinda lazy.



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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Quote Originally Posted by vandelay industries View Post
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    I think that I did something similar, but I'm sure it wasn't as detailed as this.

    I'm kinda lazy.


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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Boy am I glad Nutting was too cheap to keep that team together.

    Btw, for those hammering Neal, look at what he had left over from DL. He had 5 starters: Walker, Cutch, Doumit, Maholm and Duke. Neal has done his best to patch the holes with Tabata, Milledge, Jones, Cedeno, Alvarez, Dorf, etc, but what was he gonna get for that sorry buncha losers (outside of a couple guys) DL left him with?


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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Pardon my ignorance, but what is WAR? What is it good for?

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Quote Originally Posted by El Sid View Post
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    Pardon my ignorance, but what is WAR? What is it good for?
    Absolutely nothing.
    'I want rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ***-kickers, ****-kickers and Methodists.'

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Quote Originally Posted by War Machine View Post
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    Absolutely nothing.
    Say it again, ya'll
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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Good God!!!

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    hoo! yeah!

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Frankly, my view is that trades of ML players from 2007 were a very low priority part of the rebuilding effort - international signing, improvements in scouting and the draft were well ahead. I like the trades that went for high-risk, high-reward talent, because the types of players the Pirates traded (with the exception of Bay in my opinion) were not going to net anything other than that type of player or the ubiquitous soft-tossing "no. 4 starter" which I have no use for. No doubt the team got cheaper in doing this, and that will always (and I think appropriately) result in scrutiny of the financial commitment being made by the ownership, but in this case I think a total rebuild was needed. What will be key is when this generation of players (Cutch, Alvarez, Tabata, Walker) shake out and the Bucs need to pay to keep those of them that prove to be big pieces AND they have actual young talent in high levels of the organization. At that point, even if what appears to be at least 2 more seasons of pretty bad starting pitching keeps the team's record down, it will be time to spend at the ML level on crucial pieces - likely at least Cutch AND Alvarez. The old "we are bad with them, so we should trade them and get high-end low minors talent will, to my way of thinking, no longer be appropriate because the team will THEN be in a position to turn the corner.

    This is where I think those who criticize current management for the ML trading part of this most recent rebuild have it wrong. We were not in that sort of position in 2007. Keeping the best of that 2007 team - even if they continued to perform and many have not - was useless because no support from the system existed. Hopefully, come 2012-13-14, the story will be completely different.

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs



    Well said!

    POLITICIANS AND DIAPERS SHOULD BE CHANGED OFTEN AND FOR THE SAME REASON!

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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    Quote Originally Posted by PE1 View Post
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    Frankly, my view is that trades of ML players from 2007 were a very low priority part of the rebuilding effort - international signing, improvements in scouting and the draft were well ahead. I like the trades that went for high-risk, high-reward talent, because the types of players the Pirates traded (with the exception of Bay in my opinion) were not going to net anything other than that type of player or the ubiquitous soft-tossing "no. 4 starter" which I have no use for. No doubt the team got cheaper in doing this, and that will always (and I think appropriately) result in scrutiny of the financial commitment being made by the ownership, but in this case I think a total rebuild was needed. What will be key is when this generation of players (Cutch, Alvarez, Tabata, Walker) shake out and the Bucs need to pay to keep those of them that prove to be big pieces AND they have actual young talent in high levels of the organization. At that point, even if what appears to be at least 2 more seasons of pretty bad starting pitching keeps the team's record down, it will be time to spend at the ML level on crucial pieces - likely at least Cutch AND Alvarez. The old "we are bad with them, so we should trade them and get high-end low minors talent will, to my way of thinking, no longer be appropriate because the team will THEN be in a position to turn the corner.

    This is where I think those who criticize current management for the ML trading part of this most recent rebuild have it wrong. We were not in that sort of position in 2007. Keeping the best of that 2007 team - even if they continued to perform and many have not - was useless because no support from the system existed. Hopefully, come 2012-13-14, the story will be completely different.
    2008 team



    Neal Huntington has said it plenty of times and it's often ignored because thinking is usually involved and most of the Lemmings would rather take the easy way out. They only exist to complain. They are like organizational Hecklers. Statler and Waldorf's.... but...the Pirates didn't have any years of control over most of the guys that they traded and the reason for that is because they were older. Teams with crappy minor league systems that are small markets and no salary caps don't sign aging players to big money long term contracts with the full expectation of receiving the exact value for the money spent. Doesn't happen.

    The only thing that really has sucked for the Pirates during this rebuild is that right when Huntington was starting to unload players at the Trade Deadline is when the market changed from the sellers market it had been for quite a few years into a buyers market. Thanks to Tampa and Florida having some success at that point and doing it with a bunch of prospects. Htungtino was offered a far better deal for Bay prior to the 2008 season and rightfully passed because rationally a better half season than the terrrible 2007 season Bay produced should offer the Pirates an even greater return. It didn't happen, with the market changing and we got screwed moreso because of that.

    Regardless of the returns, we had no need for most of the players that we got rid of and we definitely weren't going to pay some of them what they were expecting to get paid at their ages. Some of them were going to get paid based on what they had previously done, not on what they are projected to do in the future and the Pirates simply can't afford to throw that sort of money away
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    Default Re: Break Up The Bucs

    I love the song AND the love for our rebuilt system, altho I had this scary vision of WVKeeper doing some sort of crotch grabbing dance when he wrote "Good God".

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