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Thread: AccuScore Says Steelers Are Big Favorites Against Jets

      
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    Default AccuScore Says Steelers Are Big Favorites Against Jets

    AccuScore Says Steelers Are Big Favorites Against Jets

    Dec 16 7:08p
    by Charlie Wilmoth
    http://pittsburgh.sbnation.com/2010/...-steelers-jets



    For whatever it’s worth, AccuScore says the Pittsburgh Steelers are big favorites against the New York Jets. The Jets have a 9-4 record, but were blown out badly two weeks ago against the Patriots two weeks ago and lost to the Dolphins last week, scoring a combined total of nine points in the process. Their offense, led by quarterback Mark Sanchez, appears to be in free fall, and AccuScore’s simulations reflect that:

    AccuScore’s 10,000 computer simulations give the Jets just a 22 percent chance to win at Heinz Field. The Steelers won them by an average of 10 points …

    A month ago, when AccuScore experimented to see how some of the elite teams would fare against each other, the Jets won 44 percent of the simulations against the Steelers. The Jets have spiraled downward.

    In this week’s sims, Sanchez completed just 50 percent of his throws and averaged a 64 passer rating. He threw a touchdown pass in only 52 percent of the games.

    AccuScore’s simulations showed that the Jets won a majority of the time when Sanchez was effective and LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene put up 100 yards or more combined. But Sanchez hasn’t been effective and the Steelers have the best rushing defense in the sport, so neither of those things seem likely.

    The oddsmakers say the Steelers are six-point favorites. That doesn’t seem ridiculous, given the number of close games the Steelers have played so far this year. But the Jets might be longer shots to win than the spread makes it seem.

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    Default Re: AccuScore Says Steelers Are Big Favorites Against Jets


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    I have sportstap on my phone and it comes with that accuscore. It's predicting the Steelers to win 17-6. Hope the computers are right this time.

    Sent from my T-Mobile G1 using Tapatalk

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    Default Re: AccuScore Says Steelers Are Big Favorites Against Jets

    FRIDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2010

    Who I like, Jets version

    by Dale Lolley


    If Troy Polamalu doesn't play this week - and I'm not sold that he won't - it affects my pick only in which team I think will cover the 5 1/2-point spread in this game.

    The Steelers' defense should dominate New York and erratic QB Mark Sanchez.

    New York will not be able to run the ball against the Steelers, forcing Sanchez, who has a propensity to try force the ball into some tight spots, to beat them.

    Sanchez isn't capable of doing that.

    The Steelers will likewise struggle to move the ball as well. But Sanchez will have a turnover or two that will help set up Pittsburgh's offense.

    Heath Miller returning to practice Friday is also big for the Steelers. I expect Pittsburgh to use him to help beat New York's seven and eight-man blitzes with quick passes.

    Take the Steelers, 17-9, if Polamalu plays.

    Take the Steelers, 17-13, if he doesn't.

    http://nflfromthesidelines.blogspot.com/

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    Default Re: AccuScore Says Steelers Are Big Favorites Against Jets

    NFL Odds Week 15: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

    By Jimmy Boyd (Senior Analyst) on December 18, 2010



    NFL oddsmakers are expecting a defensive battle when the New York Jets (9-4) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) meet in the big ketchup bottle Sunday. Perhaps that’s because these two teams have combined for 13 straight quarters without an offensive touchdown. The Steelers are listed as a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 35.5.

    The Jets will be looking to bounce back from back-to-back defeats, but that will be no easy task against a Steelers team riding a four-game win streak. Plus, the Jets have never won in Pittsburgh.

    The Steelers defense has resembled the one that carried them to a Super Bowl two seasons ago. They have held the opposition to just 9.0 points per contest during their recent win streak. The defense came up with two big touchdowns in last week’s 23-7 rout of Cincinnati. This unit has carried the team while the offense has managed only one touchdown in the last 11 quarters.

    Troy Polamalu, who I regard as the best safety in the game, is a big reason why the Steelers are sitting in first place ahead of Baltimore. With the Ravens defense stifling the Steelers in a Dec. 5 matchup, Polamalu was shot out of a cannon on a blitz off the edge to force a sack fumble that set up the winning score. Polamalu was back at it again last week, picking off two passes and returning one for a touchdown against the Bengals.

    Big Ben and the offense will likely have to play better this week to get past the Jets. The offense should get a boost from the return of tight end Heath Miller, who is a major asset as a blocker and receiver.

    It is worth noting that the Steelers are 21-8 against the number in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points.

    Getting anything through the air will not be easy with shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis lurking in the secondary. Revis and the defense figure to hold their own, but the question remains if Mark Sanchez and the offense can get the job done.

    Perhaps former Steelers wideout and 2009 Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes can provide a spark. He appears to be harboring some hard feelings over Pittsburgh’s decision to trade him. “It’s been on my mind for quite some time, I just never let it play a factor until now,” Holmes said. “I spent four years there. It’s definitely time to show these guys, ‘Why let me go?’”

    Holmes won’t get a chance to show up his former team if Sanchez doesn’t start playing better football, though. His play is a big reason why the Jets have failed to score a touchdown the last two games. He has four interceptions and no touchdown passes in losses to New England and Miami. He was just 17 of 44 for 217 yards against the Dolphins last Sunday.

    New York must get its running game going to take the pressure off Sanchez. That could be easier said than done against the NFL’s top ranked run-stuffing unit, though New York runs the football well, averaging 143.7 yards per game.

    The Jets have been a downright dominant dog, going 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games catching points.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...burgh-steelers

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