Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

      
  1. #1
    tocchet92's Avatar
    Status : tocchet92 is offline
    Rank : Major Leaguer
    Join Date : Oct 19, 2009
    Posts : 1,383
    Threads : 138
    Last Online : Jul-14-2012 @ 11:09 AM

    Default The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    "The Pirates aren’t contenders in 2010, and will readily admit that they’re still in full on rebuilding mode. In general, whenever a team in that situation makes a move for an older player to fill a big league roster spot, there’s a swath of fans who claim that the team is wasting resources. This argument actually was used in favor of the Pirates decision to deal Nyjer Morgan and Nate McLouth this summer – they downgraded the roster but got younger in the process, and the wins that were lost by subtracting McLouth and Morgan were written off as unimportant.......

    There is certainly less value in a win that takes you from a 69 to 70 win team than an 89 to 90 win team, but the value of the 70th win is not zero. It may have no real value from the perspective of playoff odds in the next season, but for the long term health of the franchise, those wins that take you from laughingstock to mediocre are still important, especially as they relate to revenue.....

    .....Developing a fan base is in many ways like developing a farm system – it requires a present term investment that theoretically returns greater future value....

    Aki Iwamura is not going to lead the Pirates to the playoffs, but he’s also a potentially useful player who will improve the 2009 club without harming the development of any significant pieces and likely came at a low cost to the organization. There is value in these kinds of transactions, even for teams that aren’t going to be winners next year. Just because a team won’t be contending in 2010 doesn’t mean they should avoid investing in the 2010 product."
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-a-losing-team

  2. #2
    BigBen2112's Avatar
    Status : BigBen2112 is offline
    Rank : Hall Of Famer
    Join Date : Oct 13, 2009
    Posts : 5,773
    Threads : 135
    Last Online : Jun-03-2014 @ 02:44 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    I think that if you make this deal then you have to also look to upgrade some other areas of the team using the same mindset...and then if you're successful with that why cant you have a successful year?
    Hidden Content
    "Like I always say, there's no 'I' in team. There's a 'me,' though, if you jumble it all up."--House

  3. #3
    PittFaninVa's Avatar
    Status : PittFaninVa is offline
    Rank : All-Star
    Join Date : Oct 28, 2009
    Posts : 2,433
    Threads : 94
    Last Online : Jun-07-2011 @ 10:03 PM

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBen2112 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    [HIGH-LIGHT]I think that if you make this deal then you have to also look to upgrade some other areas of the team using the same mindset.[/HIGH-LIGHT]..and then if you're successful with that why cant you have a successful year?



    Why???

    The Pirates have internal options at most every other position.

  4. #4
    BigBen2112's Avatar
    Status : BigBen2112 is offline
    Rank : Hall Of Famer
    Join Date : Oct 13, 2009
    Posts : 5,773
    Threads : 135
    Last Online : Jun-03-2014 @ 02:44 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Why???

    The Pirates have internal options at most every other position.
    Like the bullpen spots?

    Because I think that if you're going to give up a young guy with controlled years left for a veteran with one year left and you have a good group of core talent in the majors and others on the rise that you should at least attempt to fill some of the other holes then--namely the 'pen.
    Hidden Content
    "Like I always say, there's no 'I' in team. There's a 'me,' though, if you jumble it all up."--House

  5. #5
    jnn123's Avatar
    Status : jnn123 is offline
    Rank : Superstar
    Join Date : Oct 17, 2009
    Posts : 2,954
    Threads : 197
    Last Online : Nov-10-2013 @ 11:50 AM

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    The impression that I've gotten from the vague offseason quotes given by Coonelly and Huntington is that they definitely plan to do something with the bullpen this offseason. Whether it's signing a known commodity or just throwing a bunch of guys at the wall and seeing what sticks remains to be seen.

    An interesting thing I realized is that, as awful as he was at every other phase of building a team, Littlefield usually managed to assemble a pretty decent bullpen. How did that happen? Look at the 2006 'pen in particular:

    Torres 93.1 IP 3.28 ERA
    Capps 80.2 IP 3.79 ERA
    Grabow 69.2 IP 4.13 ERA
    Marte 58.1 IP 3.70 ERA
    Gonzalez 54 IP 2.17 ERA
    Hernandez 43 IP 2.93 ERA

    There's no way he did that on purpose.

  6. #6
    BigBen2112's Avatar
    Status : BigBen2112 is offline
    Rank : Hall Of Famer
    Join Date : Oct 13, 2009
    Posts : 5,773
    Threads : 135
    Last Online : Jun-03-2014 @ 02:44 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by jnn123 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    The impression that I've gotten from the vague offseason quotes given by Coonelly and Huntington is that they definitely plan to do something with the bullpen this offseason. Whether it's signing a known commodity or just throwing a bunch of guys at the wall and seeing what sticks remains to be seen.

    An interesting thing I realized is that, as awful as he was at every other phase of building a team, Littlefield usually managed to assemble a pretty decent bullpen. How did that happen? Look at the 2006 'pen in particular:

    Torres 93.1 IP 3.28 ERA
    Capps 80.2 IP 3.79 ERA
    Grabow 69.2 IP 4.13 ERA
    Marte 58.1 IP 3.70 ERA
    Gonzalez 54 IP 2.17 ERA
    Hernandez 43 IP 2.93 ERA

    There's no way he did that on purpose.
    I dont really know what we can say definitely that Littlefield did "on purpose."
    Hidden Content
    "Like I always say, there's no 'I' in team. There's a 'me,' though, if you jumble it all up."--House

  7. #7
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Why???

    The Pirates have internal options at most every other position.
    Pretty much. Bullpen is the only spot where they could use another 2 arms after losing Chavez. Don't they also have to re-up Karstens? I'm expecting 2 of Hart/Dumatrait/McCutchen in the pen next year as well

  8. #8
    indybucfan's Avatar
    Status : indybucfan is offline
    Rank : Major Leaguer
    Join Date : Oct 16, 2009
    Posts : 1,226
    Threads : 45
    Last Online : Feb-11-2015 @ 07:42 AM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Personally for me, if they're going to go out and get anything else, it would have to be on the mound. Although they have options, I'd still like to see them go out and sign a type that could be plugged into the #1 spot, because I don't feel we currently have a 1 on the major league roster. I'd love to take a gamble on Sheets, but it would be a huge gamble. I'd like a rotation of Sheets, Duke, Ohlendorf, Maholm and Morton. That allows Hart and McCutcheon to join Capps, Karstens, and possibly Jackson from the right side. Another possible target I'd be willing to take a flyer on is Cheng Ming Wang. The Yankees will probably turn him loose and if he's healthy, he could be worth a flyer.

  9. #9
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by tocchet92 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

    There is certainly less value in a win that takes you from a 69 to 70 win team than an 89 to 90 win team, but the value of the 70th win is not zero. It may have no real value from the perspective of playoff odds in the next season, but for the long term health of the franchise, those wins that take you from laughingstock to mediocre are still important, especially as they relate to revenue.....
    I don;t know Toc and I understand that you didn't write this and I'm not even sure if your personal opinion agrees but I think this basically comes down to an individuals belief on value. Some people value different things more or less than others. for instance we know that there's an abundance of people out there that views hitting .500 like winning a pennant. There's people out there that views 70 wins as much greater than 68 wins. I personally see something like .500 as an improvement, step in the right direction but only if it's being done with a lineup that has the ability to stay together for a little while. Anything less than that and you are really walking on a thin line betweem Fluke and um.. fluke.

    This team is definitely in building mode. There's no free agent we're going to get that's going to matter much because we right now are in that waiting mode. We won't be signing someone that's going to block Tabata, Alvarez etc... and personally we shouldn't. Anyone that we could sign, is going to be on a short term contract and the value of a player on a short term contract in MLB compared to say the NHL is night and day. Short term guys in MLB usually stink and aren't much helpful.

    I mentioned in some other thread that I think the Pirates next season by default are going to be much improved over this years team and I believe that without many or any changes being made. the one thing that has been killing this team every season is after the trade deadline. It's not so much who we are losing and then gaining, it's been that we've done so many trades that afterwards the guys in the clubhouse are learning who the hell the other person is and trying to form that cohesiveness of a team. We finished badly in 2008, we started 2009 decently. We finished 2009 badly, we should realistically start 2010 pretty strong, but the biggest exception to this upcoming season is that we shouldn't be making many moves at the trade deadline. This "team" should stay fairly in tact for the entire season and I believe that THAT is going to be the biggest difference maker. Not signing some bum .249-.258 hitter like Jeremy Hermida

  10. #10
    CROSSBONES's Avatar
    Status : CROSSBONES is offline
    Rank : All-Pro
    Join Date : Oct 17, 2009
    Posts : 4,412
    Threads : 215
    Last Online : Aug-15-2016 @ 06:32 PM

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    I'd ask about big LaRoche and Mike Gonzalez. I see little else out there that would be any exception to "young with potential". Of course the usual "good fit" acquisition will happen. Do we really have room for a "rule five" guy this year?

    We need an athlete shortstop, that can play other positions. I could see Young and Andy LaRoche playing super subs on a winning team.

    I think another good draft will start filling out the minors nicely.

  11. #11
    BigBen2112's Avatar
    Status : BigBen2112 is offline
    Rank : Hall Of Famer
    Join Date : Oct 13, 2009
    Posts : 5,773
    Threads : 135
    Last Online : Jun-03-2014 @ 02:44 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by indybucfan View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Personally for me, if they're going to go out and get anything else, it would have to be on the mound. Although they have options, I'd still like to see them go out and sign a type that could be plugged into the #1 spot, because I don't feel we currently have a 1 on the major league roster. I'd love to take a gamble on Sheets, but it would be a huge gamble. I'd like a rotation of Sheets, Duke, Ohlendorf, Maholm and Morton. That allows Hart and McCutcheon to join Capps, Karstens, and possibly Jackson from the right side. Another possible target I'd be willing to take a flyer on is Cheng Ming Wang. The Yankees will probably turn him loose and if he's healthy, he could be worth a flyer.
    The same could be said about Rich Harden...who is less of an injury risk.

    Or Erik Bedard who came back and had a good start to the season before going down again.

    I wouldn't mind them taking a chance on a guy like you're talking about...but Id really like to see them rework the pen.
    Hidden Content
    "Like I always say, there's no 'I' in team. There's a 'me,' though, if you jumble it all up."--House

  12. #12
    CROSSBONES's Avatar
    Status : CROSSBONES is offline
    Rank : All-Pro
    Join Date : Oct 17, 2009
    Posts : 4,412
    Threads : 215
    Last Online : Aug-15-2016 @ 06:32 PM

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Wins do cost more if your in contention. When you're trying to improve an already good team, the costs go up...................Gawd, that sounds like a "Tim McCarver"

  13. #13
    tocchet92's Avatar
    Status : tocchet92 is offline
    Rank : Major Leaguer
    Join Date : Oct 19, 2009
    Posts : 1,383
    Threads : 138
    Last Online : Jul-14-2012 @ 11:09 AM

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I don;t know Toc and I understand that you didn't write this and I'm not even sure if your personal opinion agrees but I think this basically comes down to an individuals belief on value. ........
    I tend to agree with this author who was basically making the case for the Iwamura acquisition. I certainly do not advocate the Littlefield crap of Wil Cordero, Joe Randa, Jeremy Burnitz, blah blah blah ad nauseum...

    A signing like Iwamura is beneficial to the fans simply by improving the on field product. A signing like Iwamura is beneficial to the rebuilding Pirates especially the pitching staff. Having a solid defense up the middle is indispensable to a young developing pitching staff. A rebuilding team has to hit the "sweet spot" when signing a veteran and I think NH nailed it with this signing. Iwamura is reasonably priced and not blocking anybody.

    "While rebuilding teams have to look towards the future, they also have to avoid the death spiral that can occur when a small revenue team fails to put a good product on the field, drives away the fan base, and in the process lowers future revenues. There is a financial cost to losing that is magnified when teams are uniformly awful, and that cost can inhibit a team’s growth potential in the long run. Developing a fan base is in many ways like developing a farm system – it requires a present term investment that theoretically returns greater future value.

    Aki Iwamura is not going to lead the Pirates to the playoffs, but he’s also a potentially useful player who will improve the 2009 club without harming the development of any significant pieces and likely came at a low cost to the organization."

  14. #14
    Mister Pittsburgh's Avatar
    Status : Mister Pittsburgh is offline
    Rank : Major Leaguer
    Join Date : Oct 16, 2009
    Posts : 1,383
    Threads : 122
    Last Online : Apr-27-2013 @ 05:09 PM

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by PittFaninVa View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Why???

    The Pirates have internal options at most every other position.
    Really? Lefty bullpen arms or quality bullpen arms at that? Where are they?

  15. #15
    Kipper's Avatar
    Status : Kipper is offline
    Rank : Legend
    Join Date : Oct 8, 2009
    Posts : 67,323
    Threads : 1817
    Last Online : Apr-25-2017 @ 08:36 PM
    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team

    Quote Originally Posted by tocchet92 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I tend to agree with this author who was basically making the case for the Iwamura acquisition. I certainly do not advocate the Littlefield crap of Wil Cordero, Joe Randa, Jeremy Burnitz, blah blah blah ad nauseum...

    A signing like Iwamura is beneficial to the fans simply by improving the on field product. A signing like Iwamura is beneficial to the rebuilding Pirates especially the pitching staff. Having a solid defense up the middle is indispensable to a young developing pitching staff. A rebuilding team has to hit the "sweet spot" when signing a veteran and I think NH nailed it with this signing. Iwamura is reasonably priced and not blocking anybody.

    "While rebuilding teams have to look towards the future, they also have to avoid the death spiral that can occur when a small revenue team fails to put a good product on the field, drives away the fan base, and in the process lowers future revenues. There is a financial cost to losing that is magnified when teams are uniformly awful, and that cost can inhibit a team’s growth potential in the long run. Developing a fan base is in many ways like developing a farm system – it requires a present term investment that theoretically returns greater future value.

    Aki Iwamura is not going to lead the Pirates to the playoffs, but he’s also a potentially useful player who will improve the 2009 club without harming the development of any significant pieces and likely came at a low cost to the organization."
    I agree in that Iwamura was a good move because our pitching staff needs that infield defense. No doubt about that and I was happy to see us sign Iwamura to address that need since Delwyn Young struggled to get down the 2B position. It's also a positive because Iwamura is on for just 1 year and we can weigh our options after that, seeing what the minor league depth is at 2B and how long it might be away.

    I just looked at the presentation of the WAR numbers being off and not really a good viable reasoning for signing Iwamura at all, since there's a lot of variables that go into a WAR number like I mentioned

Quick Reply Quick Reply

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Members who have read this thread: 0

There are no members to list at the moment.

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •