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Thread: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

      
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    Default Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Someone needs to answer this for me...

    I think it was Carney the other day that listed a future 2014 lineup and had Stetson Allie as the closer. It's been mentioned a few times by experts that his ceiling is likely of a closer ...

    Does anyone really think that the Pirates dropped 1st Round money, more than $2 million on a guy that they project to be a Closer?? Maybe it;s my lack of affection for closers and believing that their worth is about equal to a kicker in the NFL. They have value but you don't waste upper picks in the draft on them and you can generally find one with decent value and skill for cheap. Heck, even a bum like Matt Capps got 27 saves for a crappy Pirates team while wearing a 5.80 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. If you can get 27 saves with that type of production ...

    My questions are plenty.

    1. If Stetson Allie is drafted by another Organization, is his ceiling still consider a Closer or do they change it a starter, perhaps #3?

    2. It seems backwards for "experts" to congratulate and get excited over anyone drafting a "closer" in the 2nd round with 1st round money. Usually this gets a ton fo criticism or I would've assumed this at least.

    3. Do the Pirates realistically draft a closer in the 2nd round with 1st round money? It doesn't make sense to me and from every indication it sounds like they drafted Allie as a starter.

    4. How does someone like Allie go from being potential a top end starter to a closer? Is it #1-2 or closer and forget about #3-5 because he has better closer make up and value than a #3-5 starter?

    I think that's it. Call me confused. Personally I'd be ****ed if we drafted a closer in the 2nd round for over $2 million bucks .

    Brian Wilson (24th)
    Heath Bell (Amateur FA)
    Francisco Cordero (Amateur FA)
    Carlos Marmol (Amateur FA)
    Billy Wagner (1st)
    Rafael Soriano (Amateur FA)
    Joakim Soria (amateur FA)
    Neftali Feliz (Amateur FA)
    Kevin Gregg (15th)
    Jonathan Paplebon (4th)

    Those were the top closers as far as "saves" are concerned. Drafting one at #2 with a nice big Round 1 bonus makes no sense to me. It makes no sense for Huntington to do it and it makes no sense for the "experts" to accept this. Not only accept it but provide it as much bravado as it got
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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Any of these questions answered would provide a calming to me
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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    Someone needs to answer this for me...

    I think it was Carney the other day that listed a future 2014 lineup and had Stetson Allie as the closer. It's been mentioned a few times by experts that his ceiling is likely of a closer ...

    Does anyone really think that the Pirates dropped 1st Round money, more than $2 million on a guy that they project to be a Closer?? Maybe it;s my lack of affection for closers and believing that their worth is about equal to a kicker in the NFL. They have value but you don't waste upper picks in the draft on them and you can generally find one with decent value and skill for cheap. Heck, even a bum like Matt Capps got 27 saves for a crappy Pirates team while wearing a 5.80 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. If you can get 27 saves with that type of production ...

    My questions are plenty.

    1. If Stetson Allie is drafted by another Organization, is his ceiling still consider a Closer or do they change it a starter, perhaps #3?

    2. It seems backwards for "experts" to congratulate and get excited over anyone drafting a "closer" in the 2nd round with 1st round money. Usually this gets a ton fo criticism or I would've assumed this at least.

    3. Do the Pirates realistically draft a closer in the 2nd round with 1st round money? It doesn't make sense to me and from every indication it sounds like they drafted Allie as a starter.

    4. How does someone like Allie go from being potential a top end starter to a closer? Is it #1-2 or closer and forget about #3-5 because he has better closer make up and value than a #3-5 starter?

    I think that's it. Call me confused. Personally I'd be ****ed if we drafted a closer in the 2nd round for over $2 million bucks .

    Brian Wilson (24th)
    Heath Bell (Amateur FA)
    Francisco Cordero (Amateur FA)
    Carlos Marmol (Amateur FA)
    Billy Wagner (1st)
    Rafael Soriano (Amateur FA)
    Joakim Soria (amateur FA)
    Neftali Feliz (Amateur FA)
    Kevin Gregg (15th)
    Jonathan Paplebon (4th)

    Those were the top closers as far as "saves" are concerned. Drafting one at #2 with a nice big Round 1 bonus makes no sense to me. It makes no sense for Huntington to do it and it makes no sense for the "experts" to accept this. Not only accept it but provide it as much bravado as it got

    That writeup is from Baseball America and reflects the opinion of the person writing it, in this case Dejan. I've never given much thought to those projected lineups and I've been reading Baseball America for years. There are way too many variables involved and to guess a lineup is a failing proposition.

    Allie will be a starter as long as he is successful as he goes through the system. People see that 100 mph fastball and automatically think closer. I want to see him in the rotation and hopefully he'll be able to stay there.

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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by indybucfan View Post
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    That writeup is from Baseball America and reflects the opinion of the person writing it, in this case Dejan. I've never given much thought to those projected lineups and I've been reading Baseball America for years. There are way too many variables involved and to guess a lineup is a failing proposition.

    Allie will be a starter as long as he is successful as he goes through the system. People see that 100 mph fastball and automatically think closer. I want to see him in the rotation and hopefully he'll be able to stay there.
    I thought that it was more than just Dejan stating that Allie having the ceiling as a Closer and also that Dejan gets his sources from scouts (at least thats what i was lead to believe), so the whole "closer" thing from Dejan is possibly relayed from somewhere... possibly?
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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Allie has the potential to be a #1 starter, but he's more of a project than Taillon. The main reason the closer talk surrounds Allie is because he lacks a changeup, but does have a very strong fastball/slider combo.

    He can hit triple digits with his fastball, but has more control in the mid-90 range. In shorter outings, or when he's going for a strikeout, he can rear back and throw it as hard as he can, but he doesn't have the control to do that on every pitch. His slider is also a very good offering, in the upper 80s.

    Overall he's a guy who could make it as an All-Star closer if he doesn't have success as a starter. However, with his fastball and slider, all he would have to do is develop an above-average changeup over the next few years to be a very strong starting option.

    So it's more of a "he could be a top of the rotation starter, and worst case, a power closer".

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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    I'd rather have a guy with 'closer' stuff be a starter. I agree with you regarding closers. I think a lot of guy become them over timke or have a unique style like Tekulve or Quisenberry.

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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by buccofans View Post
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    Allie has the potential to be a #1 starter, but he's more of a project than Taillon. The main reason the closer talk surrounds Allie is because he lacks a changeup, but does have a very strong fastball/slider combo.

    He can hit triple digits with his fastball, but has more control in the mid-90 range. In shorter outings, or when he's going for a strikeout, he can rear back and throw it as hard as he can, but he doesn't have the control to do that on every pitch. His slider is also a very good offering, in the upper 80s.

    Overall he's a guy who could make it as an All-Star closer if he doesn't have success as a starter. However, with his fastball and slider, all he would have to do is develop an above-average changeup over the next few years to be a very strong starting option.

    So it's more of a "he could be a top of the rotation starter, and worst case, a power closer".
    But, we're talking about a guy who some are saying his ceiling is a Closer, nto a starter. That's what I'm getting at, unless my own mind has been leading me wrong
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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    But, we're talking about a guy who some are saying his ceiling is a Closer, nto a starter. That's what I'm getting at, unless my own mind has been leading me wrong
    I guess it really depends on whether they think he can develop a changeup. Control/command of his pitches is also a thing he'll need to work on.

    Overall he's a very expensive project, with a very big upside.

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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Don't worry though, there's plenty of time for this to play out since he hasn't even thrown his first professional pitch yet.

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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by buccofans View Post
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    I guess it really depends on whether they think he can develop a changeup. Control/command of his pitches is also a thing he'll need to work on.

    Overall he's a very expensive project, with a very big upside.
    I guess what confuses me is what I swear i've heard/read was his ceiling of being a Closer and this coming from the same people I would think that wouldn't be happy about the Pirates drafting a "closer" in the 2nd round for 1st round money.

    am I seeing this wrong?
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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by indybucfan View Post
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    Don't worry though, there's plenty of time for this to play out since he hasn't even thrown his first professional pitch yet.
    I agree and like Tim had said it depends on the development of the changeup and command, but I can't see the kid being ranked that high (some even said he was the 2nd best pitcher in the draft behind Taillon) and be considered as a strong possibility for a Closer. That just seems a bit extreme to me. Maybe it's my view of closers and my own value or lack of that I apply to closers in general.
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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    I guess what confuses me is what I swear i've heard/read was his ceiling of being a Closer and this coming from the same people I would think that wouldn't be happy about the Pirates drafting a "closer" in the 2nd round for 1st round money.

    am I seeing this wrong?
    Here is what Dejan had to say in the BA summary:

    "Though it's easier to project Allie as a closer, the Pirates hope he can become a starter and he'll begin 2011 in the West Virginia rotation. That role will give him the innings to work on his changeup and make the transition from thrower to pitcher."

    I think the key is the whole "it's easier to project Allie as a closer" part. Right now he has all of the tools to be a good closer, but the potential to become a starter as well. It's easy to project him as a starter, because you don't have to worry about whether he can develop a changeup. You just have to assume he will make the proper adjustments at each level with his fastball/slider combo.

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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by buccofans View Post
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    Here is what Dejan had to say in the BA summary:

    "Though it's easier to project Allie as a closer, the Pirates hope he can become a starter and he'll begin 2011 in the West Virginia rotation. That role will give him the innings to work on his changeup and make the transition from thrower to pitcher."

    I think the key is the whole "it's easier to project Allie as a closer" part. Right now he has all of the tools to be a good closer, but the potential to become a starter as well. It's easy to project him as a starter, because you don't have to worry about whether he can develop a changeup. You just have to assume he will make the proper adjustments at each level with his fastball/slider combo.
    What were the others projecting Allie as? Not locals like Dejan, but Law, Goldstein etc...? Did they say anything or has the entire "closer" talk started with Dejan?

    It just seems backwards to draft a guy seen as a Closer but with starter potential rather than a Starter who could be a closer. The money the Pirates paid Allie, the risk taken with drafting him and having to pay that kind of money and all of the positive feedback and comments coming out when we drafted Him... I can't see all of that happening if everyone is seeing him as a closer who could start with a lot of work rather than the other way around
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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kipper View Post
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    What were the others projecting Allie as? Not locals like Dejan, but Law, Goldstein etc...? Did they say anything or has the entire "closer" talk started with Dejan?

    It just seems backwards to draft a guy seen as a Closer but with starter potential rather than a Starter who could be a closer. The money the Pirates paid Allie, the risk taken with drafting him and having to pay that kind of money and all of the positive feedback and comments coming out when we drafted Him... I can't see all of that happening if everyone is seeing him as a closer who could start with a lot of work rather than the other way around
    Here is Goldstein/BP (free article):

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=12400

    Basically says he lacks an off-speed pitch, which is why there are questions.

    Pretty much all of the concerns are the same. He doesn't have an off-speed pitch, and he'd be a closer if he doesn't develop one.

    That's not really a big issue. Most prep pitchers like Allie lack an off-speed pitch. If you've got a mid-90s fastball and an 88 MPH slider, you're not going to need a changeup at the prep level. Taillon doesn't have much of a changeup either, as he didn't need to use it much. The difference is that Taillon is polished more, has more control/command of his other pitches. All he needs to focus on is developing his changeup. Allie needs the changeup, but also needs to work on his control and command of his fastball. He's got more to work on, so it won't be as easy for him as it will for Taillon.

    I wonder how much Taillon really impacts the view of Allie. If they're not on the same team, does Allie get cut some slack? Or is he hurt because Taillon is a rare prep pitcher in the same organization that is extremely polished, and ready to jump right in to pro ball with little to work on? I wonder if people are making their analysis in part because Allie isn't as good as Taillon, rather than just focusing on how good Allie is, without comparing him to others?

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    Default Re: Stetson Allie The Closer. Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by buccofans View Post
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    Here is Goldstein/BP (free article):

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=12400

    Basically says he lacks an off-speed pitch, which is why there are questions.

    Pretty much all of the concerns are the same. He doesn't have an off-speed pitch, and he'd be a closer if he doesn't develop one.

    That's not really a big issue. Most prep pitchers like Allie lack an off-speed pitch. If you've got a mid-90s fastball and an 88 MPH slider, you're not going to need a changeup at the prep level. Taillon doesn't have much of a changeup either, as he didn't need to use it much. The difference is that Taillon is polished more, has more control/command of his other pitches. All he needs to focus on is developing his changeup. Allie needs the changeup, but also needs to work on his control and command of his fastball. He's got more to work on, so it won't be as easy for him as it will for Taillon.

    I wonder how much Taillon really impacts the view of Allie. If they're not on the same team, does Allie get cut some slack? Or is he hurt because Taillon is a rare prep pitcher in the same organization that is extremely polished, and ready to jump right in to pro ball with little to work on? I wonder if people are making their analysis in part because Allie isn't as good as Taillon, rather than just focusing on how good Allie is, without comparing him to others?
    I read something after they drafted him where he even mentioned closing. So that might be part of what they're going by. I love the arms they've loaded up with, but with all these kids being so young, it's best to sit back and let them develop and see what happens. I will get excited when these high school arms get to AA. By that time, they should start having the arsenal they're going to have and we'll be able to see more of what we have.

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