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Thread: The Prediction For Super Bowl XLV

      
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    Default The Prediction For Super Bowl XLV

    I know that there's a Prediction Thread but due to Superstition I could not partake and needed to follow my exact format I used for Super Bowl XLIII when I predicted a Pittsburgh Steelers victory over the Arizona Cardinals 27-24

    So, with that said I used the same exact formula that I used in 2008 to come up with this Super Bowl Prediction which is really nothing more than a ton of statistical crunching, averaging and math.

    In general what I sought to do was eliminate stat padding. For instance to figure out numbers I went by a 10 team span and if possibler I went 5 above and 5 below where that team or player was ranked. It's useless to try and determine what Aaron Rogers might do against the Steelers Pass Defense if you use what his numbers were against the 22nd ranked Atlanta Falcons pass defense.

    Here's an example for instance.. Ben Roethlisberger faced 6 Top 10 Pass Defense. The Packers were ranked #5 in Pass Defense, so using my 5 above and 5 below recipe I saw that Ben faced - Oakland, Buffalo, New Orleans, New York Jets (x2) and Miami. Ben Roethlisberger didn't play against Tampa Bay and there's no point in using numbers from a passing game of a QB that didn't play. I did the same with the Packers and Aaron Rogers regarding their game against New England and 1 against Detroit in which Aaron Rogers didn't play.



    What I did was then went and pulled out all of Ben's numbers in those games and added every single one, did some math and such to determine that Ben on average in all of those games 17/30 for 236 yards. That's just half of it. I looked at the 5 above and below Ben Roethlisberger for Green Bay's Pass Defense to see how they performed against Quarterbacks ranked around where Ben did in Yardage. The Packers Defense game up 281 Yards on average through the air against Top 10 Passing QB's and the exact same completion percentage (the only time this happened).

    Now I did completely separate stats breakdowns for Touchdowns and Interceptions and Yards Per Pass based on looking at what the top Teams in my 5 above and below were for those statistics. I did it for points scored, points against, turnovers, Field Goals. I have about 12 sheets of paper sitting here with chicken scratch on it

    A lot of back and forth between Tabs and looking at Game Stats was involved.

    What I did not do was determine WR stats and this was due to continuing the Superstition. I didn't figure out stats for Wide Recievers in Super Bowl XLIII and despite wanting to do it for this game, I decided not to do it. Same goes for sacks. I felt it was impossible to accurately guess/determine this because of the loss of Maurkice Pouncey for this game.

    After about a weeks worth of information and number crunching.... below is what I came away with ...

    Ben Roethlisberger : 17/30 | 259 yards | 1TD | 0 INT | 57% Comp | 6.8 YPA
    Rashard Mendenhall : 20 Carries for 90 Yards | 1 TD | 4.5 YPC
    Shane Suisham : 2 for 2 FG's
    Aaron Rogers : 23/34 | 251 yards | 1 TD Pass | 1 TD Run | 1 Int | 7.3 YPA
    James Starks : 20 carries for 62 yards | 0 TD | 3.1 YPC
    Mason Crosby : 1 for 1 FG's
    Green Bay with a safety

    Final Score

    Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Green Bay Packers 19
    Last edited by Kipper; Oct-09-2012 at 08:23 AM.
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    Default Re: The Prediction For Super Bowl XLV

    What I thought was really amazing about this Prediction was that I had determined the individual numbers before I looked at Points for and against. Both ended up being the same. When I did the Points for and against on their won I had Steelers 20 and Packers at 18.5 which I rounded up (I rounded up for most things)

    The Individual scores were the same as you can see. Green Bay with 2 touchdowns + 1 FG + 1 safety = 19. Steelers with 2 TD's + 2 FG's = 20
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    Default Re: The Prediction For Super Bowl XLV

    As long as we win it's all gravy in the end.

    I saw a packer fan at the market yesterday, us both stylin' our colors. We had a brief and pleasant exchange about both lookin' forward to a great game.

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    Default Re: The Prediction For Super Bowl XLV


    Collier: Time for a forecast; we don't mean weather


    Saturday, February 05, 2011
    By Gene Collier, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette


    DALLAS -- You can lose your sense of time and place when you are ice and snowbound in Texas -- at least they say it's Texas -- so it was highly useful when Green Bay Packers wideout Greg Jennings jarred me back to semi-clarity Friday with this:

    "I'm trying to envision what it will be like," he said of the Super Bowl Sunday night. "Every morning I wake up, and it's still not there."

    Exactly. Thank you, thank you.

    Now I know what time it is. When you hear that, in any Super Bowl week, you know we've reached the time to make a prediction, but first an apology. At this point of Super Bowl week in Tampa two years ago, you surely don't remember, I said the Steelers would beat the Arizona Cardinals, 27-24.

    So sorry.

    Turned out the Steelers beat the Arizona Cardinals 27-23. For that and all 173 inaccurate predictions since February of 2009, again, my apologies.

    Anyway, onward and, uh, onward.

    When you analyze the matchup that is Super Bowl XLV, or as I like to call it, PGH-PACK I, the first thing you have to consider is Pittsburgh's experience. As the Steelers are most of the way through their third Super Bowl week in six years, and since that same six-year period of Super Bowl history is 100 percent Packers-free, this would figure to be important.

    Without the benefit of experience, for example, how would Ben Roethlisberger know to take his offensive line to a piano bar and, according to TMZ, "sing his face off" until 1:45 a.m.?

    "I haven't been out carousing," Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said the morning after Steelers karaoke. "I am a homebody, so I've been spending a lot of time in my hotel room watching film."

    What did you expect? He's Mr. Rodgers.

    The Green Bay quarterback is the most productive player on either team right now, partly because his maturity has paralleled nicely with the Packers' peak performances.

    "I just look at Aaron Rodgers as a quarterback that's really developing and delivering on time," said Packers coach Mike McCarthy. "He stayed true to his craft and very true to his fundamentals. He's an expert of the offense. He has the ability to run the whole offense, if needed, at the line of scrimmage. We were always confident that the productivity would come. If there was one big hurdle, it would be leadership.

    "Leadership was something that we needed to have more of as a football team. It's something I've given a lot of thought to over the last couple years, creating those opportunities in particular for Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, A.J. Hawk, and the elected captains for the playoffs. Giving those men an opportunity to be in front of the team more, our leadership has definitely picked up. I'd say that's the biggest hurdle and the biggest improvement in Aaron Rodgers."

    There is about Rodgers what smells like destiny this week, with all manner of unlikely people fueling it, like former Steelers running back John Kuhn.

    "Aaron has been on fire here in the playoffs, just like Ben was that year [2005]," Kuhn said. "Both were playing tremendous football at that time, and I think it's going to be a duel out there Sunday. I think they both give their teams great chances to win, and I think Aaron's ready."

    You don't really have to look far for evidence that McCarthy's team is fully capable of delivering only the second Steelers Super Bowl loss in eight appearances. If you did you could delve into some history, but be careful where you look.

    Dick LeBeau got the customary royal treatment from the media this week, and few would deserve it more, but recent Super Bowl history shows that his defense in Tampa two years ago, even with two weeks of preparation, got ripped for 377 passing yards by Kurt Warner. If James Harrison hadn't made merely the greatest defensive play in Super Bowl history, the 100-yard touchdown run with an interception at the end of the first half, you'd very likely be looking at Cardinals 30, Steelers 20. I hope Santonio Holmes doesn't think he won Super Bowl 43 in the final minutes. Harrison won it 30 minutes previous with what was essentially a 14-point play.

    Neither is it a wonderful omen that among the hundreds of Super Bowl and quasi-Super Bowl events this week was one of those key-to-the-city presentations in Arlington to Super Bowl 30 MVP Larry Brown, who now hosts a Dallas Cowboys pregame show in the area.

    Brown, should the name have slipped your mind, is the cornerback whose two interceptions handed the Steelers their only Super Bowl loss. I didn't go to the key-to-the-city event, but the presentation was made by a Dr. Robert Cluck.

    I guess Neil O'Donnell wasn't unavailable.

    So pretty much from one end to the other, this week has had an almost palpable feel of impending Packers success, which in my experience can mean only one thing.

    Steelers 28, Packers 26.

    Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11036...#ixzz1D75fNTuJ

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    Default Re: The Prediction For Super Bowl XLV

    Nowhere close was I with this prediction
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